Since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, Pakistan’s relations with the United States have taken a new turn. Pakistan has struggled to position itself in regional politics, especially after the U.S. and allied forces’ withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. Nonetheless, Islamabad is on the track to regain its strategic importance in Washington’s South Asian policy. Such a shift in its relations with the U.S. brings Pakistan once again to the forefront in both regional and global geopolitics.
Even though Pakistan’s loyalty will remain with China, could Islamabad’s growing closeness with Washington affect its relations with its strategic partner, Beijing?
Earlier this year, Trump’s public praise for Pakistan during a joint address to the U.S. Congress surprised many who believed that Islamabad was no longer relevant to Washington’s foreign policy in South Asia. A few weeks later, the first phone call between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Pakistani counterpart, Ishaq Dar, set the tone, indicating that despite great uncertainties, Pakistan-U.S. ties are gradually improving.
Relations took a strong turn when Trump claimed to have brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan after a four-day war, with Pakistan praising his efforts and nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize while India denied any role played by Washington in the truce. According to Rajiv Dogra, a former Indian diplomat, Trump was “angered by India’s refusal to back his Nobel Peace Prize bid and its denial of any U.S. role in halting Operation Sindoor.” The U.S. tilt toward Pakistan has been more visible since then.
On July 25, Dar and Rubio met in Washington, D.C., where Rubio “expressed appreciation for Pakistan’s continued willingness to play a constructive role in mediating conversations with Iran and its commitment to preserving regional stability.” The two reportedly also discussed the prospects for deepening bilateral counterterrorism cooperation, including countering the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP).
This was followed by the Pakistan-U.S. counterterrorism dialogue in Islamabad on August 12, a long dormant format. During the meeting, both sides reaffirmed their joint commitment to fight against terrorism in all its manifestations and forms. A real boost for Pakistan came the day before the dialogue began when the U.S. Department of State designated the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and its affiliate, the Majeed Brigade, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, bringing the BLA and its members under more scrutiny worldwide. This is a win for Pakistan as it has been fighting the group in its largest and resource rich province, Balochistan. Pakistan has been accused of gross human rights violations including forced disappearances in the region.
Besides this, the military-to-military level meetings have also made strides in Pakistan-U.S. relations. The head of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), General Michael Erik Kurilla, visited Pakistan in July, where he was conferred with the Nishan-e-Imtiaz (Military) award for his role in deepening counterterrorism operations between Islamabad and Washington. Prior to Kurilla’s visit, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Field Marshall Asim Munir also made a visit to Washington, where he was, in an unprecedented gesture, hosted for lunch by Trump at the White House.
The amalgamation of these politico-military meetings reached a pinnacle last month when Trump hosted Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, along with Munir, at the White House. Sharif praised Trump as a “man of peace” who helped facilitate the ceasefire between India and Pakistan. He also thanked Trump for the conclusion of a tariff agreement and invited U.S. firms to invest in Pakistan.
Trump has also praised Sharif and Munir. He called Munir his “favorite field marshal” during this week’s Gaza Peace Summit in Egypt, where he also put Sharif in the spotlight and asked him to say a few words. Utilizing the opportunity, Sharif praised Trump’s efforts for peace. About Trump, he said, “President Trump, who is genuinely a man of peace, who has relentlessly and untiringly worked throughout these months, day in and day out, to make this world a place to live with peace and prosperity.”
He added, “Mr. President, I would like to salute you for your exemplary leadership – visionary leadership – and I think that you’re the man this world needed most at this point in time.” Such a visible bonhomie between the leaders of both countries indicates a great shift in Washington’s policy vis-à-vis South Asia.
For years, Pakistan was seen as a U.S. ally from a primarily security perspective, in line with its role working against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan and later evolutions of the conflict in South Asia. However, the current closeness between the United States and Pakistan is not limited to security cooperation.
On September 8, two memorandums of understanding (MoUs) were signed between U.S. Strategic Metals (USSM) and Pakistan’s Frontier Works Organization (FWO) in Islamabad in an event attended by Sharif along with Munir and the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad’s Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Zach Harkenrider and U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Natalie Baker. After the MoU signing, Baker said, “This signing is yet another example of the strength of the US-Pakistan bilateral relationship that will benefit both countries.” Under the agreement, USSM is investing $500 million in Pakistan’s critical minerals and rare earth elements.
The agreement also follows Trump’s pledge in July to develop Pakistan’s “massive oil reserves.” As Baker put it, “The Trump administration has made the forging of such deals a key priority given the importance of critical mineral resources to American security and prosperity. We look forward to seeing future agreements between U.S. companies and their counterparts in the critical minerals and mining sector in Pakistan.”
A recent report by the Financial Times claimed that U.S. officials were approached by advisers to Pakistan’s COAS with an offer to develop and run a port on the Arabian Sea. The proposal plan includes U.S. investors developing and running the operations of a terminal to gain access to the country’s critical minerals in the port town of Pasni in Balochistan’s Gwadar District. The plan categorically does not include the use of the port as a U.S. military base but aims to bring financial support for a rail network connecting the port terminal to the rich mineral area in the country. If the U.S. considers this proposal, it will enable it to keep an eye on Iran and Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s proposal appears to seize the moment, but it may affect its relations with China, whose entities are already involved in tapping the country’s natural resources, including gold and copper, under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Notably, China has already invested heavily in developing another port in Balochistan, Gwadar. Nevertheless, Pakistan seems to have maintained a balanced approach in its relations with the U.S. and China.
Pakistan’s loyalty undoubtedly remains with its strategic partner, China, which it keeps apprised about its mining cooperation with the U.S. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian, “Pakistan stressed that its interactions with the U.S. will never harm China’s interests or its cooperation with China.” Regarding Pakistan’s partnership with China, he said, “China and Pakistan are all-weather strategic cooperative partners. Our iron-clad friendship has stood the test of time. The two countries have maintained high-level strategic mutual trust and close communication on major issues concerning each other’s common interests.”
China is not only Pakistan’s largest investor with significant contributions to its foreign direct investment (FDI), but also its largest supplier of its arms. According to the recent SIPRI report, Pakistan accounted for 63 percent of China’s arms export between 2020 and 2024.
China has been a beneficiary of Pakistan’s closeness with the U.S. in the past, gaining access to U.S. and other Western military technology through Pakistan that Chinese scientists allegedly have then reverse-engineered. Pakistan also helped facilitate the breakthrough in relations between China and the U.S. in the early 1970s. Similarly, China can benefit from Pakistan’s current closeness to Washington in the security arena since the BLA is responsible for several attacks on Chinese personnel in Pakistan. Furthermore, if Pakistan manages to convince the U.S. to invest in the port terminal in Pasni, it could be lucrative for China, too.
Pakistan’s growing closeness with the U.S. positions Islamabad to regain its strategic importance in the U.S. South Asian policy. It does not suggest in any way that Pakistan will let this short-term gain sabotage its ties with long-standing partner and ally China. The pragmatism also suggests that Pakistan should maintain a balanced approach to keep its relations with the U.S. and China on a positive trajectory.