On October 4, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) parliamentarians and its rank-and-file members selected a new leader for a party that was in disarray and searching for a purpose. The party spoke: they picked Takaichi Sanae, a conservative politician who last served as economic security minister, as their new leader. And considering that the opposition parties – which hold a majority in both houses – have given up on forming a unified front against the LDP, it is likely that she will become Japan’s first female prime minister.
The result took experienced pollsters by surprise. It was widely speculated that, by the sheer number of his Diet member votes, Koizumi Shinjiro – whom Takaichi defeated – would triumph in the second round of voting. However, although a wide range of polls suggested that Koizumi would secure more than 90 Diet member votes (there were 92 Diet members, including proxies, at his election launch party), his actual first-round total was only 80, followed by Hayashi Yoshimasa with 72, who finished third in the first round. This proved fatal, as his relatively weak support among the rank-and-file could not convince the Diet members that he was the “favorite son.” Koizumi’s share of the prefectural vote was 11, in contrast to Takaichi’s 36 votes. The final tally in the second round of voting was 185 votes for Takaichi, and 156 votes for Koizumi.
Takaichi’s victory can be attributed to three main factors. First, when pressed with a choice, a relative majority of the eligible voters viewed Takaichi’s conservative appeal – which could help reclaim disaffected conservative voters – as a greater asset than Koizumi’s youth and inexperience.
Second, there was division within the group formerly known as the Kishida faction, headed by former Prime Minister Kishida Fumio. According to Yomiuri Shimbun, although Kishida preferred his members to vote for Koizumi rather than Takaichi – whom he described as “Taliban” for her strong conservative beliefs – in the second round, some refused to follow his guidance. This was partly out of respect for Takaichi, who was the most popular candidate in the first round, and partly due to resentment toward Kishida for hedging his bets with Koizumi instead of focusing his efforts on electing Hayashi, who was supposed to represent his faction.
Finally – and perhaps most importantly – was the strategic maneuvering of party elder Aso Taro, who saw an opportune moment to return to the party mainstream. Aso directed his own faction, the only remaining formal faction within the LDP, and made side deals with Kobayashi Takayuki and Motegi Toshimitsu, who placed fourth and fifth, respectively, in the first round of voting, to throw their support behind Takaichi. The fact that Takaichi appointed Suzuki Shunichi – Aso’s brother-in-law – as the LDP’s secretary general, the party’s second-most powerful position, is widely seen as a reward for Aso’s contribution.
Takaichi’s path to the premiership is filled with potential stumbling blocks, any of which could shorten her time in power. The first question that arises is how she will unite the party when nearly half of LDP voters did not support her in the leadership race. If she fails to create a “team of rivals” by appointing her competitors to positions that satisfy them – a pledge she appears willing to honor – Takaichi may lack the necessary support to endure difficult times. This could lead to internal opposition that may challenge her leadership as her two-year term as LDP president draws to a close.
The second hurdle is how to maintain – and potentially expand – her party’s coalition partnership. Prior to the election, the LDP’s more than two-decade-long coalition partner, Komeito, warned that they would only form a government with a “moderate conservative” – a gesture widely seen as an attempt to pressure Takaichi into softening her policy stances. Aware of the LDP’s heavy reliance on Komeito in nearly every electoral district, Takaichi has indeed moderated her positions and reiterated that the coalition with Komeito is vital.
At the same time, Takaichi, along with other LDP candidates, floated the possibility of including a third party in the coalition, potentially the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) or Nippon Ishin no Kai, in order to escape minority status in both houses of the Diet. However, Komeito has shown reluctance to include Nippon Ishin in the ruling coalition due to policy differences and electoral rivalry. It may take some time for Takaichi to find a viable path to break the legislative gridlock.
The extent to which she is willing to compromise her beliefs to enact policy will be a crucial test of her leadership. A fiscal dove herself, Takaichi is an outlier in a party dominated by fiscal hawks – including her benefactor, Aso Taro. Although she has argued for pursuing her dovish fiscal and monetary policies in a “responsible” manner, her decision to challenge party orthodoxy may provoke backlash not only from powerful figures within the LDP but also from the public, particularly if such policies lead to a weaker yen, accelerate inflation, or fuel populist discontent.
Takaichi’s attitude toward historical issues has also worried some more moderate figures. If, after taking office as prime minister, she follows through with a visit to the Yasukuni Shrine – a custom she has regularly practiced, though she did not explicitly mention it during this election campaign – it would lead to diplomatic friction with South Korea and China. This is something that Komeito has explicitly demanded she refrain from doing. Moreover, her strict stance on public safety, which stems from growing concerns about the increasing number of foreigners, worries Komeito, which prefers more harmonious policies toward immigrants.
Whether Takaichi can rebrand herself as a pragmatic conservative will be equally important in placating both her domestic partners and foreign neighbors. At the same time, she faces a dilemma: a quick shift to the center before solidifying her support among the right-wing base may undermine her mandate to bring conservatives back into the fold.
Depending on how everything turns out, it will determine whether Takaichi becomes a Margaret Thatcher – the politician she admires most – or a Liz Truss, whose short tenure as U.K. prime minister was marked by the announcement of an extravagant spending scheme (including tax cuts and subsidies) that resembles Takaichi’s own proposals. Becoming the first female LDP president – and having the premiership within reach – is a remarkable achievement in itself. Takaichi is now entering the arena where she must learn and perform the “art of the possible.”