Months after his disappearance from public view, news has finally surfaced regarding the fate of Central Military Commission (CMC) Vice Chairman He Weidong. On October 17, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of National Defense announced that He – who has not been seen since March – had been expelled from the Chinese Communist Party and stripped of his military ranks, ostensibly on corruption charges.
He’s downfall marks a major development in People’s Liberation Army (PLA) politics, as he is the first sitting CMC vice chairman with a professional military background to be purged since the Cultural Revolution.
Insights into PLA Politics
The PLA is, above all, a highly politicized institution; therefore, purges are not unexpected. However, the current scale and reach of ongoing purges within the PLA are definitely concerning.
Although the official justification often cites anti-corruption efforts, it is important to recognize that purges at the CMC level are rarely about corruption alone. Instead, political considerations are usually the dominant factor.
Long regarded by China watchers as a loyalist of Xi Jinping, He’s rise to the top mostly depended on Xi’s patronage. Consequently, his fall carries several significant implications.
The relationship between Xi and He dates back decades, when both served in the province of Fujian. Despite He’s elevation to the CMC vice chairmanship under Xi’s endorsement, they likely fell out due to a serious breakdown of trust. Xi may have come to perceive He as no longer a loyal subordinate, but as a potential threat. As a result, He was stripped of all power to ensure Xi’s personal and political security.
Looking in from the outside, the precise cause of this rupture remains unclear. However, what is evident is that conflict within the CMC – the inner sanctum of the PLA’s power structure – reached a critical point that culminated in He’s downfall.
He’s appointment as CMC vice chairman had been part of Xi’s strategy to consolidate control over the CMC by promoting loyalists. But the fall of He and another sitting CMC member, Miao Hua, suggests that Xi may now feel uneasy even among his own acolytes.
This partial failure of Xi’s consolidation strategy not only has consequences for the PLA’s internal politics, but also for its ability to fulfill its primary mission of warfighting.
External Implications
History offers many examples of how purges adversely affect military effectiveness. Stalin’s purges of the Red Army turned it into a stumbling giant, exhibited by its awful performances during the Winter War of 1939 and Operation Barbarossa of 1941. In 1978, Pol Pot’s purge of the Eastern Zone’s military commanders led to the rapid collapse of Khmer Rouge defenses in the war with Vietnam. In highly centralized military systems, conflicts at the top of the hierarchy inevitably undermine morale and discipline throughout the officer corps.
Beyond personal ties, another factor that likely contributed to He’s promotion to vice chairmanship was his extensive experience leading troops in Fujian – the primary staging ground for potential Chinese military operations against Taiwan. It was once conceivable that, given his background, He was being prepared to lead such an operation.
Yet, the purge of a sitting CMC vice chairman indicates that despite its rapid modernization, the PLA’s leadership quality is deteriorating. Senior commanders are likely spending more time navigating the pitfalls of the widening purge than preparing for external threats. With the fall of He, it is certain that his associates will also be targeted and detained.
While the PLA will continue its assertiveness in gray-zone operations, the likelihood of war in the Taiwan Strait has temporarily decreased, as PLA internal instability continues to spread. The atmosphere within the CMC is likely quite tense and fraught with intrigue, distrust, and fear – conditions that are now seeping down to lower ranks.
What to Look for Next
A key question on the horizon is: who will replace He Weidong as CMC vice chairman? Presently, four CMC members – Chairman Xi Jinping, Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia, and CMC Members Liu Zhenli and Zhang Shengmin – are responsible for making decisions that affect over 2 million PLA members, an unsustainable arrangement in the long term.
Nonetheless, in the six months since He’s absence, there have been no signs of a successor. Xi appears comfortable in running the CMC without a replacement for He. This may reflect a shortage of ideal candidates, or suggest Xi enjoys a greater concentration of power in his hands. Whoever eventually assumes the role is likely to be a pliant figure who obeys Xi unquestionably, rather than someone with genuine military expertise or high standing among commanders. The rise of such a figure would further diminish the competence and autonomy of the PLA’s senior leadership.
Beyond the issue of He’s replacement, the remaining CMC members are now in a precarious position. Following the downfall of Miao Hua and He Weidong, remaining CMC members Liu Zhenli, who also leads the Joint Staff Department, and Zhang Shengmin, the PLA anti-corruption chief, could find themselves on the chopping block. However, if Zhang Youxia were to fall, it could trigger a crisis within the PLA. Zhang, a childhood friend of Xi who provided significant aid in managing the PLA, has been instrumental to Xi’s control over the military. His sudden removal would indicate that purges have entered an unprecedented phase and absolutely no one is safe.
Conclusion
The official confirmation of He Weidong’s downfall marks a watershed moment in Xi’s PLA purges. As the first sitting CMC vice chairman from a career military background to be purged since the Cultural Revolution, He’s ouster has reduced the CMC to its smallest size since the People’s Republic’s founding. It reveals that conflict within the CMC has reached a boiling point and Xi could no longer tolerate even his long-time loyalists.
While the PLA remains a formidable military, turbulence at the top of its command structure inevitably affects the entire organization’s cohesion and readiness. Looking ahead, it would be interesting to keep an eye on the successor to He’s seat, who is likely to be a passive and politically reliable officer, confirming Xi’s preference of loyalty over expertise. In the meantime, remaining CMC members face heightened vulnerability. Should Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia – the last of Xi’s old comrades at the CMC – be purged, a PLA leadership crisis could ensue, with far-reaching consequences for China’s stability and military effectiveness.