In a bold move to counter cross-border terrorism, Pakistan last week reportedly launched targeted military strikes inside Afghanistan. The development marked a significant escalation in Pakistan’s response to militant threats from Afghanistan.
The immediate catalyst for Pakistan’s reported use of airstrikes in Afghanistan was the death of 11 Pakistani military personnel, including a lieutenant colonel and a major in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP)’s Orakzai district, in a militant attack.
According to some reports, Pakistan responded to the attack with targeted airstrikes in multiple Afghan cities, including Kabul, Paktika, and Kunar, where TTP strongholds and leadership were hit. Among the reported casualties were key TTP commanders, including the group’s leader Noor Wali Mehsud.
Pakistan has so far not officially acknowledged or rejected the reported airstrikes.
This marks a significant shift in Pakistan’s policy toward Afghanistan, which has hitherto been seemingly driven by frustration with the Afghan Taliban’s failure to curb the activities of the TTP and other militant groups operating from Afghan soil.
After more than four years of exhausting diplomatic efforts to persuade the Taliban regime in Kabul to act against these groups, Pakistan’s new punitive approach signals a readiness to use force to protect its national security.
Following Pakistan’s targeting of militant targets, the Afghan Taliban resorted to retaliation by attacking Pakistani forces along the border. The development escalated tensions further as both sides deployed heavy weaponry during the skirmishes.
According to Pakistan’s military media wing, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), approximately 200 Afghan Taliban fighters and associated militants were killed, while Pakistan suffered 23 military casualties during the border skirmishes. For the first time, Pakistan reportedly employed a range of sophisticated weapon systems to neutralize militant threats as well as the Afghan Taliban’s posts and command centers.
Arguably, Pakistan’s military operations and weapons used in last week’s confrontation reflect a new doctrine, which indicates that any attack by Afghanistan-based militants will trigger firm cross-border retaliation and may potentially target high-value militant leaders. This policy essentially places the Afghan Taliban in a precarious position, as the group must now balance protecting TTP leadership and associated militants with managing the fallout from Pakistan’s military actions.
Moreover, the Taliban regime now also faces growing domestic pressure in Afghanistan. It is possible that Pakistan’s strikes and expected punitive actions could destabilize the group’s already fragile governance system.
Islamabad’s unprecedented action underscores its growing resolve to neutralize threats emanating from across the border, irrespective of the diplomatic cost.
There is a visible hardening in Pakistan’s diplomatic stance toward the Afghan Taliban, which has gone as far as questioning the group’s legitimacy to govern the country. Previously, Islamabad referred to the Taliban as an interim government, but it now refers to them as a “regime.” Pakistan has also called for a more inclusive government that represents all Afghan people.
“We also hope that one day, the Afghan people would be emancipated and they would be governed by a true representative government,” Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a strongly worded statement this week.
This rhetorical shift signals a near-suspension of ties between the two countries. Pakistani officials have once again reiterated that there will be no further dialogue with either the TTP or the Afghan Taliban regarding negotiations with militants. This change in tone was also likely exacerbated by Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s visit to India at a time when Pakistani forces were under attack from Afghanistan-based militants.
The ISPR noted with concern that “this serious provocation occurred during the Taliban foreign minister’s visit to India,” adding that Pakistan will continue to “persistently neutralize terror targets” unless verifiable action is taken against militants. Seemingly, Pakistan’s new approach makes it clear that the status quo of taking military casualties without imposing extreme costs across the border is no longer acceptable and that the country will respond to any terrorist attack with action inside Afghanistan.
It is also important to note that Pakistan’s decision to take the fight to Afghanistan also carries a strong domestic message. This decision is particularly aimed at the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)-led provincial government in KP. For some time now, the PTI has been undermining military operations against militants by advocating for dialogue with the Taliban and militant groups.
However, the federal government and institutional stakeholders seem to have firmly rejected this approach by the provincial government. With the strikes in Afghanistan, they have signaled that no barriers, internal or external, will stand in the way of crushing terrorism emanating from Afghanistan.
Arguably, this is a direct warning to the PTI government in KP that its political posturing on national security issues will not be tolerated. The state’s priority is ostensibly clear that national security is going to supersede local politics and that cross-border operations into Afghanistan will proceed as needed.
Furthermore, Pakistan’s new strategy clearly poses a significant challenge for the Afghan Taliban regime, who are internally divided and already struggling to gain international legitimacy. There has been no international criticism of Pakistan’s punitive military action against militant hideouts inside Afghanistan. This suggests that the international opinion, particularly from the United States as well as regional countries, is aligned when it comes to the need for the Afghan Taliban to take verifiable action to rein in TTP and other militant groups.
Last month, Pakistan, Russia, China and Iran collectively urged the Afghan Taliban to take “effective, concrete and verifiable actions” to dismantle militant groups operating on its soil.
The group must now contend with likely domestic unease sparked by Pakistan’s strikes and future similar actions while fulfilling commitments to the global community to act against militant groups like the TTP. Ultimately, the Afghan Taliban will have to decide between supporting militant groups like the TTP and face isolation, or act pragmatically to end ties with extremists, which could pave the way to win international legitimacy.
Whether Pakistan’s approach will weaken hardline and pro-TTP elements within the Taliban leadership remains uncertain. However, it is evident that Pakistan is now willing to impose significant costs on Afghanistan to shift the dynamics.
This shift in Pakistan’s approach is a setback for the Afghan Taliban. The group risks alienating a neighbor that has historically provided economic, diplomatic, and political support to it.
With strained ties and the prospect of further punitive actions looming, the Taliban clearly face a tough road ahead. Pakistan’s renewed resolve to protect its security through decisive action signals a new chapter in its fight against terrorism, one that could reshape the region’s geopolitical landscape.