The presidential election race within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to choose a successor to outgoing Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru kicked off on September 22. This time, there are five candidates for the LDP presidency: former Economic Security Minister Takaichi Sanae, 64; Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Koizumi Shinjiro, 44; former LDP Secretary General Motegi Toshimitsu, 69; Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa, 64; and former Economic Security Minister Kobayashi Takayuki, 50.
Among them, Takaichi is the only female candidate, and she’s considered one of the frontrunners. A poll conducted by Yomiuri Shimbun on September 13-14 showed Takaichi on top with 29 percent support, followed by Koizumi with 25 percent, Motegi with 7 percent, Hayashi with 6 percent, and Kobayashi with 3 percent. Another opinion poll taken on September 18 by Jiji Press showed that Koizumi was the most favored, followed by Takaichi. Therefore, many Japanese analysts see the contest as a two-way race between Takaichi and Koizumi.
If Takaichi wins the LDP leadership election, she will presumably become Japan’s first female prime minister. Based on her policy preferences, what would a Takaichi government mean for Japan’s economic, foreign, and security policy, especially Japan-U.S. relations?
Takaichi’s popularity among LDP supporters stems from the fact that she is an experienced conservative politician and a direct protege of the late Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, the conservative’s icon. She first ran for the LDP presidency in 2021. Last year, Takaichi was narrowly defeated by Ishiba; this year’s race marks her third bid for the presidency.
In the upper house elections in July 2025, some conservative voters in Japan supported not the LDP but other right-wing parties, such as Sanseito and the Conservative Party of Japan. In particular, Sanseito increased its seats in the Diet using its nationalistic “Japanese First” platform. Takaichi’s conservative political stance could appeal to conventional conservative voters in Japan, and the LDP might be able to regain their support.
Another strength of Takaichi is her long-term political experience. Takaichi was first elected as a member of the lower house in July 1993. In 2006, during the first Abe Cabinet, Takaichi held five posts simultaneously: minister of state for science and technology policy, minister of state for innovation, minister of state for Okinawa and Northern Territories Affairs, minister of state for gender equality, and minister of state for social affairs and food safety.
In December 2012, Takaichi became the LDP’s Policy Research Council Chairperson, and was selected as minister for internal affairs and communications during the second Abe Cabinet in September 2014.
In August 2022, during the second Kishida Cabinet, she became minister in charge of economic security, minister of state for intellectual property strategy, minister of state for science and technology policy, minister of state for space policy, and minister of state for economic security. She was selected as minister of state for “Cool Japan” strategy in September 2023.
After her defeat in the 2024 LDP presidential election, Takaichi has kept her distance from the Ishiba Cabinet. Given the Cabinet’s low approval rate, that could be regarded as another advantage for her in the presidential race.
Takaichi officially announced her bid for the LDP presidency on September 19. In doing so, she promised a master plan to double the size of Japan’s economy within 10 years, stating: “I have never denied the need for fiscal consolidation, which of course is important… But the important thing is growth. I will make Japan once again a vigorous land of the rising sun.”
Her proposed policies include tax cuts, cash payments, and the abolition of the provisional gasoline tax rate. Regarding her fiscal policy, however, Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies, commented, “There will be a lot of resistance even from her own party over what they would consider fiscal irresponsibility… It could have immediate impacts on Japan’s economy if she tries it. So it is a risky thing.” Thus, some critics view fiscal policy as Takaichi’s weakness in the presidential campaign.
Takaichi’s conservative political views could win her support, but may also cause some concerns about her candidacy – particularly about the foreign policy implications. On August 15, 2022, Takaichi, then the economic security minister of the Kishida Cabinet, paid a visit to Yasukuni Shrine in order to express “her gratitude with respect for the souls of those who died in service to the country.”
One of the nightmare scenarios for Japanese relations with neighbors including China and South Korea would be Takaichi’s visit to the Yasukuni Shrine as a prime minister of Japan. No matter how she tries to justify it, it would cause serious diplomatic tensions, as was the case following then-Prime Minister Abe’s visit to Yasukuni.
Japan is currently enjoying a warm period in relations with South Korea, and ties with China have also seen some small signs of stability as both countries brace for the impact of Trump’s tariffs. Both relationships would be jeopardized if a future Prime Minister Takaichi emphasizes conservative views of historical issues.
In a news conference on September 19, Takaichi did not mention a potential visit to Yasukuni Shrine, but she called China an “important neighbor” and stressed the significance of strengthening the bilateral relationship.
In the field of defense policy, Takaichi would take up the mantle of her mentor by continuing the Abe Doctrine. Takaichi reiterated her strong will to amend the Japanese Constitution to codify the existence of the Self-Defense Forces. During her first bid for the LDP presidency in 2021, Takaichi, as “Abe’s disciple,” stated that if elected she would work to push through legislation to legalize Japan’s strike capability against enemy bases, which was accomplished under Kishida.
Without a doubt, Takaichi would seek to enhance Japan’s defense capabilities and reinvigorate the Japan-U.S. alliance based on her political philosophy, which is similar to Abe’s. It should be noted that Abe formed a strong bond with President Donald Trump. In addition to Abe, Takaichi considers former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as her role model.
Meanwhile, two veteran LDP Diet members – former Foreign Minister Kono Taro and Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu – announced that they would support Koizumi, although they ran themselves in the presidential race last year.
Kono was one of the frontrunners in the 2021 presidential election race, although he was eventually defeated by former Prime Minister Kishida Fumio. In other words, Kono’s decision not to run for the presidential election is significant.
Moreover, Kato is thought to be an influential conservative legislator in the LDP. As he offered his support to Koizumi, Asahi Shimbun reported that Koizumi “appears to have scored an early victory in winning over conservatives in the party.” Takaichi may face a repeat of the 2024 race, when she won the most votes in the first round only to lose in the second round, as Diet members preferred the more moderate Ishiba.
When it comes to policies, Takaichi is so uncompromising that she divorced Yamamoto Taku, a veteran LDP lawmaker, over political differences in 2017. After Yamamoto retired from politics, however, she remarried him in 2021. This time, Yamamoto Taku changed his family name to Takaichi, symbolizing the power balance in their marriage.
If Takaichi becomes the first female prime minister of Japan, it would contribute to improving gender equality in the country. Takeda Hiroko, a professor at Nagoya University who researches gender and politics, pointed out, “Having a woman become prime minister could really shift how the world sees Japan.”
According to Global Gender Gap Report 2025 published by the World Economic Forum, Japan ranked just 118th out of 148 countries. One such indicator is that the number of female political leaders in Japan is low. Needless to say, a female prime minister would help shift this assessment.
In Japan, it is still difficult for women to continue their careers due to social expectations regarding child-rearing. Takaichi pledged to change this situation, saying, “I have personally experienced nursing and caregiving three times in my life. That’s why my determination has only grown stronger to reduce the number of people forced to leave their jobs due to caregiving, child-rearing, or children refusing to attend school… I want to create a society where people don’t have to give up their careers.”
The LDP presidential election will be held on October 4. Whether Japan will have its first female prime minister will depend on the performance of Japan’s own “Iron Lady,” Takaichi Sanae.