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Tracking Conflict in the Asia-Pacific: September 2025 Update

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Tracking Conflict in the Asia-Pacific: September 2025 Update

In August, the Myanmar navy increasingly relied on air support to fight resistance forces, and Indonesia’s anti-government demonstrations turned deadly.

Tracking Conflict in the Asia-Pacific: September 2025 Update
Credit: ID 32084281 © Garudeya | Dreamstime.com

Each month, ACLED’s Asia Pacific Team collects information on the dates, actors, locations, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events in the region.

Details below on significant developments in August 2025 in Afghanistan, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Pakistan, and Papua New Guinea.

Afghanistan: Taliban escalates its repression of women as protests mark the fourth anniversary of its takeover

As the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan marked its fourth anniversary in August, the Taliban intensified their campaign to restrict women’s rights. Beginning in mid-July and continuing through August, the Taliban arrested dozens of women and girls for defying gender restrictions, such as hijab regulations and prohibitions on movement without male guardians. Some of those arrested on July 28 were reportedly beaten in the process.

Morality police, under the Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, also doubled down on the enforcement of the Taliban’s strict interpretation of Islamic law. Taliban officials raided dozens of clandestine beauty salons and threatened shopkeepers with imprisonment if they sold goods to women not wearing Taliban-approved hijabs. 

The Taliban’s Supreme Leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, reportedly ordered authorities to gradually stop the enrollment of girls in religious schools during a Cabinet meeting in August. This follows an earlier ban on schooling beyond the primary level, and would effectively eliminate one of the few remaining formal learning avenues for women.

The United Nations observed that the Taliban were closer than ever to eradicating women from public life, underscoring the potential long-term humanitarian and social repercussions of these policies. These concerns were brought to the forefront following the devastating earthquake that hit eastern Afghanistan on August 31, with humanitarian agencies highlighting the particular vulnerability of women and girls.

Afghan women continued to show defiance in the face of increasing repression. Throughout August, ACLED recorded at least nine — mainly indoor — protests by women, including activists from the Purple Saturdays Movement and the Spontaneous Movement of Afghan Women Fighters, across Kabul, Herat, Takhar, and Balkh provinces. This mobilization surpassed the six women-led protests that marked the anniversary of the Taliban’s takeover last year. Protesters condemned the systematic repression of women and the denial of their fundamental freedoms.

India: Political violence surges in Jammu and Kashmir as security forces extend anti-militancy operations

In August, security forces launched one of the longest anti-militancy operations in recent years in the Kashmir Valley. As a consequence, political violence in Jammu and Kashmir more than doubled compared to July.

ACLED recorded a dozen clashes between militants and state forces across the 11-day operation, which began on August 1 in the Akhal forest of Kulgam district, and resulted in the deaths of a militant and two soldiers. Operation Akhal — launched based on intelligence suggesting the presence of a group of militants in the Akhal forest — was called off on August 11 amid reports that militants were breaking the security cordon and escaping. Indian officials noted that the militants appeared to be highly trained in jungle warfare and exploited dense foliage to evade detection by drones, demonstrating the challenges to countering militancy in the region.

Cross-border infiltration of militants from Pakistan into Jammu and Kashmir continued in August. ACLED recorded at least two such attempts that month, resulting in the reported deaths of three militants and one Indian soldier. This development comes amid reports of the Indian government’s plans to deploy additional troops along the Line of Control to enhance security.

August, which marked the sixth anniversary of the abrogation of Article 370 that ended Jammu and Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status, also saw 28 protests against the revocation of this status across the region. Amid the protests, the national government banned 25 books that it claimed promote secessionist ideologies and incite violence, raising concerns of intensifying state censorship. Continued militant activity and public discontent contradict the Indian government’s claims of improved peace and security in the region.

Indonesia: Anti-government demonstrations turn violent and deadly 

Demonstrations surged across the country in the final week of August, driven by public outrage over the stark disparity between parliament members’ salaries and regional minimum wages. The demonstrations began on August 25 in Jakarta when a student-led protest called for the dissolution of parliament. This came after reports emerged of parliamentarians receiving salaries and allowances estimated at around 230 million rupiahs ($14,000) per month — more than 100 times the lowest regional minimum wage in the country.

Tensions escalated on August 28 when a tactical police vehicle ran over and killed a motorcycle taxi driver during a protest for higher wages, triggering nationwide riots. In a wave of anger, demonstrators set fire to the Mobile Brigade Corps headquarters, looted the residences of four parliament members and the minister of finance, and vandalized at least 15 local government buildings.

As of September 2, the unrest resulted in at least 716 injuries in Jakarta alone, along with seven people killed — including four civil servants — in Makassar, Yogyakarta, and Surakarta. This marks the deadliest episode of civil unrest in the past decade, outside of conflicts in Papua and those related to national elections. In response, the president convened emergency meetings, revoked parliament members’ allowances, and ordered a formal investigation into the death of the taxi driver.

While the latest round of demonstrations marks the most significant challenge to President Prabowo Subianto’s administration, it comes on the back of sustained opposition to his economic policies that have been met with multiple waves of demonstrations since he took office 10 months ago. In February, thousands of students rallied against budget cuts, while on August 13, thousands protested a hike in property taxes in Pati Regency, resulting in over 30 injuries. The frequent outbreak of anti-government protests indicates rising public frustration with the Prabowo administration, with some observers drawing parallels to the widespread anger and dissent that led to the 1998 riots and the fall of Suharto’s 32-year dictatorship.

Myanmar: Navy increasingly relies on air support to fight resistance forces 

Military naval deployments reached their highest levels this year in July and remained high throughout August. In August, these centered on conflict fronts in Kachin and Rakhine states. Frequently accompanied by artillery shelling, these deployments have resulted in civilian casualties and driven displacement. The navy has also conducted joint operations with the air force aimed at preempting ambushes and securing strategic positions. ACLED recorded 12 incidents involving artillery fire from navy ships or armed clashes in which navy vessels were directly involved throughout the month, as well as at least 10 reported fatalities from civilian targeting events from coordinated operations between the navy and air force.

In one such incident on August 11, fighter jets bombed villages in Shwegu township in Kachin state, as a flotilla of nearly 20 vessels advanced north along the Ayeyarwady river, reportedly killing seven civilians. Shwegu is located along riverbanks south of Bhamo, where intense fighting has persisted for months.

Further southwest, on August 5, at least 300 troops were transported to Sittwe in Rakhine state via cargo ships from Yangon. On August 17, over 10 naval vessels anchored offshore near Sittwe, in preparation for counter-offensives against the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA). On August 20, a deadly clash broke out between ULA/AA and the military on Ramree island in Kyaukphyu township, a strategic area hosting the Dhanyawaddy navy base and Kyuakphyu deep sea port. The township capital is one of only three remaining under military control in Rakhine state. The military deployed a combination of airstrikes, paramotors, and naval artillery during the confrontation.

The military’s use of inland waterways in the Chindwin and Ayeyarwady river and its maritime mobility in the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea has become increasingly strategic as it seeks to bypass resistance-held land corridors, cut opposition tax revenues, and secure its logistics. With the junta seeking to tighten control over water routes, naval operations — now increasingly coordinated with airstrikes — are expected to intensify in the coming months.

Pakistan: Operation Sarbakaf intensifies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Bajaur district

Operation Sarbakaf, a Pakistani military operation to clear militants from parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Bajaur district, began in earnest in August and increased levels of political violence in the Mamund area. Initially launched in late July, the operation was briefly suspended on July 30 as tribal elders unsuccessfully sought to negotiate with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to remove militants from civilian settlements. It resumed with heightened intensity on August 11.

ACLED recorded at least nine instances of clashes and remote violence between militants and security forces in the Mamund area since the offensive began, as military forces targeted militant hideouts with artillery and helicopter gunships.

Given its strategic location on the Afghan border, Bajaur district has emerged as a base for militants from both the TTP and Islamic State Khorasan Province. ACLED data point to the rising threat from militant groups in the district, as the number of violent incidents involving militant groups thus far in 2025 is nearing that for all of 2024. 

At the same time, the military’s actions are coming under renewed scrutiny. There have been civilian casualties from shelling that locals claim were carried out by military forces, and more than 100,000 people have been displaced. The collateral damage to civilians has prompted protests. The provincial chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa sought to distance himself from the operation, highlighting divisions within the political leadership on ways to combat militancy.

Papua New Guinea: ​​Tribal violence intensifies again in Enga province

In August, intercommunal tensions once again erupted into high-lethality violence in Enga province, the site of regular outbreaks of tribal violence. Two major clashes in August resulted in 10 reported fatalities, marking the highest monthly death toll recorded by ACLED from tribal conflict since November 2024. 

On August 15 in Wapenamanda, a confrontation between the Yangakuni and Yakuman tribes erupted during a community event attended by Transport Minister Miki Kaeok. The violence reportedly began with an assassination attempt on Kaeok, which instead injured a relative, triggering a chain of retaliatory attacks. The immediate fallout included five people killed and eight injured, as clashes continued into the following day.

Another outbreak of violence occurred in Kompiam, where renewed clashes between the Porealin and Kalimbi tribes also resulted in five people killed. These groups had previously clashed earlier in the year, including a February incident where a patient and his guardian were shot at the Kompiam District Hospital, reflecting ongoing tensions between groups with a history of conflict. Police claim that the continued escalation is partly attributable to the weakening of traditional leadership structures, as the ability of tribal elders to mediate disputes and enforce customary resolutions appears to be in decline

In response to ongoing violence in Enga, the authorities declared all districts except Wabag a “fighting zone” on August 21, invoking the Inter-group Fighting Act 1977. The legal framework grants security forces expanded authority to impose curfews, restrict movement, confiscate weapons, and detain individuals involved in hostilities. The fighting zone designation will remain in effect until November 21. ACLED records 38 incidents of tribal violence in Enga in the last 12 months.