Thailand’s opposition People’s Party has yet to decide which party it might back in the forming of a new coalition government, a party spokesperson said, after the dismissal of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra last week.
With 143 of the 500 seats in Thailand’s House of Representatives, the support of the People’s Party will be crucial in the formation of the next government, which requires a majority vote. The party is currently being wooed by both the Pheu Thai party, which leads the current coalition government and holds 135 seats, and its former partner, the conservative Bhumjaithai party, which holds 69 seats.
The People’s Party met yesterday to consider rival offers from the two parties, but failed to reach a decision, People’s Party spokesperson Parit Wacharasindhu told a press conference. “There was a wide exchange of views today and the party will convene again tomorrow,” Parit said, according to a Reuters report.
On Friday, the Constitutional Court removed Paetongtarn from office for ethical breaches in a leaked phone call with Cambodia’s influential former leader Hun Sen. The decision has initiated a period of distraction and political maneuvering, as the country’s major political parties jostle for both short- and long-term advantage.
According to the Constitution, the appointment of the next prime minister requires a simple majority in the 500-seat House of Representatives. Candidates are limited to those nominated by the parties ahead of the 2023 general election. A vote to select a new prime minister could take place as early as September 4, but there is no time limit on forming a new government.
After Paetongtarn’s dismissal, the People’s Party announced that it would support the formation of a government by any party willing to hold a referendum on the amendment of the military-drafted Constitution of 2017, which contains a number of provisions designed to stymie the emergence of a truly reformist government. It has also demanded the dissolution of parliament and the calling of new elections within four months. Based on the results from the 2023 general election, when its predecessor, the Move Forward Party (MFP), won a plurality of the seats in the House, the People’s Party is well-positioned to win–at which point it could be possible to form a government on its own. Most importantly, the People’s Party says that while supporting the formation of a new minority government, it will remain outside the coalition.
Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai have held separate meetings with the People’s Party, and both say they are ready to comply with its demands.
As I noted yesterday, the People’s Party now has choice between what for it must be two unsavory options. Pheu Thai has more seats in the House, meaning that it would have no need to include (and compromise with) any other smaller parties in forming government, but the People’s Party may still be smarting from its betrayal by Pheu Thai after the 2023 election, when it abandoned the MFP after the military-dominated Senate blocked it from forming government. (Pheu Thai ended up joining with conservative and military-backed parties to form the current many-legged coalition.) At the same time, Bhumjaithai and its ambitious leader Anutin Charnvirakul are even further removed ideologically from the People’s Party’s progressive political stance.
Whichever option the People’s Party ends up choosing – and Thai media reports indicate that the party may not announce its decision until the parliamentary vote actually takes place – it is a risky gambit. As Napon Jatusripitak of Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute argued in a recent thread on X, the move could alienate the People’s Party’s support base. It is also unclear what the party could do to enforce its conditions on the government, should this somehow emerge with a majority in parliament.
“Supporting a government it doesn’t join – and one that may not honor its promises – opens PP to attacks from both its base and critics, who could see the move as naïve or opportunistic,” he wrote.
During yesterday’s press conference, when asked if Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai would honor the party’s demands, spokesperson Parit Wacharasindhu’s response was telling: “To be straight, we don’t trust either.”