On the eve of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly, the international community witnessed the emergence of a new military alliance between two pivotal regional powers in the Islamic world with the signing of a mutual defense pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. This alliance has the potential to establish itself as one of the most significant military-political blocs of the decade, exerting direct influence on the configuration of geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East and South Asia.
On one hand, the alliance between Riyadh and Islamabad may be perceived as a symbol of a new era in which competition for leadership among Islamic states gives way to cooperation. In other words, civilizational factors, as emphasized by Samuel Huntington, are increasingly shaping international relations.
On the other hand, the strengthening of military and political ties between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan could pave the way for closer alignment between Israel and India, as they seek to develop coordinated responses to the consolidation of the Islamic bloc.
Geopolitical Status
Despite significant economic challenges, Pakistan continues to assert itself as an independent regional actor. This is underpinned by its strategic geographic position, control over key ports such as Karachi and Gwadar, substantial demographic potential, and, most critically, possession of a nuclear arsenal. This latter element endows Pakistan with the status of a power capable of deterrence and influence, thereby reinstating the primacy of “hard power” in international relations.
Saudi Arabia, in turn, leverages its own advantageous geographic position, flexible and multifaceted foreign policy, and unique religious authority within the Islamic world.
Consequently, the emerging alliance between them cannot be interpreted as an asymmetrical partnership in which one party dominates. Rather, it exemplifies a balanced and mutually reinforcing relationship grounded in comparable strengths.
The End of Competition?
In recent decades, the Muslim world has been marked by intense competition for leadership. Initially, Iraq under Saddam Hussein asserted dominant claims, but following the fall of his regime, Turkiye, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan emerged as key contenders for influence. This multipolarity within the Islamic sphere has objectively benefited external powers, as fragmentation diminished the political agency of Muslim states and hindered the development of a unified agenda.
Countries in the Middle East and South Asia are increasingly adopting constructivist approaches rooted in shared values, identities, and ideological foundations. This enables a gradual transition from rivalry to cooperation, establishing a new trend within the Islamic world.
Saudi Arabia’s Motives
Saudi Arabia’s decision is largely driven by security considerations. Recent Israeli strikes on Hamas bases in Qatar have raised significant concerns in the Arab world, demonstrating that Israeli military actions may target not only Palestinians but also regional states closely aligned with the West. The presence of U.S. forces in Qatar did not deter Israel from striking. Amid escalating threats, Riyadh has been compelled to seek a reliable strategic partner capable of providing robust security guarantees.
In this context, Pakistan, with its nuclear arsenal, has emerged as the most suitable ally for Saudi Arabia, as it effectively has no rival within the Islamic world. The agreement between the two parties establishes the principle of collective defense, whereby an attack on one nation is regarded as an act of aggression against both. Furthermore, a specific provision affirms the potential use of all types of weaponry, effectively activating a “nuclear umbrella” mechanism and significantly enhancing the level of strategic deterrence in the region.
Pakistan’s Position
The agreement is equally significant for Pakistan. Islamabad is effectively leveraging its primary strategic asset – its nuclear arsenal – to position itself as a unique actor within the Islamic world. This factor has rapidly elevated Pakistan to the status of a key military ally of Saudi Arabia and opens opportunities for closer alignment with other regional powers, such as Iran, Turkiye, and various other Muslim states.
The alliance with Riyadh holds several distinct dimensions for Pakistan. First, it serves to counterbalance India’s growing influence, a dynamic particularly evident during the spring Kashmir crisis. Second, Pakistan faces challenges in advancing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), as Beijing has suspended funding for several projects amid instability in Balochistan, resulting in a slowdown of bilateral momentum. Islamabad requires a reliable and financially robust partner to offset domestic economic costs and reduce dependence on external creditors, with Saudi Arabia emerging as the most suitable candidate for this role.
The Civilizational Factor
The emergence of this alliance reflects a return to Samuel Huntington’s thesis of the “clash of civilizations.” An increasingly evident trend suggests that states are forming strategic alliances not solely based on pragmatic interests and power dynamics but also on shared civilizational identities, values, and ideological orientations. In this context, the alliance between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is grounded in shared religious, political, and strategic affinities. Both nations have long demonstrated a willingness to engage with diverse external partners, yet crisis-driven circumstances have heightened the need for a dependable ally to rely on amid escalating threats. This development underscores a renewed emphasis in international relations on values and ideologies, beyond mere calculations of power and material interests.
Durability of the Alliance?
Following the signing of the defense agreement, Riyadh emphasized its commitment to a multifaceted foreign policy, explicitly affirming the preservation and further development of strategic relations with India. New Delhi, in turn, promptly responded, stating that it is closely monitoring the situation. Indian elites are well aware that their primary strategic rivalry in the Indian Ocean region has historically been not so much with Pakistan but with Saudi Arabia, which possesses significant financial and religio-political resources to project influence in the region.
Within this framework, India is likely to take concrete steps to strengthen cooperation with its traditional partners. The most probable avenues include deepening engagement with Israel through the I2-U2 framework and bolstering its position within the Quad, alongside the United States, Japan, and Australia. Concurrently, New Delhi’s strategic focus may shift toward Iran, as the implementation of the India-Middle East-Europe corridor is now increasingly subject to the influence of Riyadh and Islamabad. In this context, the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Chabahar port project gain heightened relevance.
At the same time, the resilience of the Pakistani-Saudi alliance will largely be tested by developments in Kashmir. The question of whether Riyadh would be drawn into the conflict remains unresolved, as Saudi Arabia’s pragmatic foreign policy approach may deter it from taking such risky steps, despite the agreement.
Conclusion
The alliance implied between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in light of their new mutual defense pact is forged on the basis of equal standing, with each party possessing distinct geopolitical advantages. It symbolizes the end of an era of intense competition for leadership within the Islamic world and underscores the growing significance of civilizational factors in international relations.
Looking ahead, this alliance could serve as the foundation for a broader military-political bloc within the Islamic world. It is no coincidence that Egypt has already expressed support for the creation of an “Arab NATO.” However, the realization of such ambitions will require time, as the durability of the Pakistani-Saudi alliance must still be tested in practice.