Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister of Thailand, has arrived in Singapore and is due to return to Thailand this evening, according to Thai media reports, a day ahead of a Supreme Court verdict that could land the influential politician in prison.
Late last week, the 76-year-old leader, the patriarch of the Pheu Thai party, suddenly left Thailand, supposedly for a medical check-up in Singapore. But once out of Thai airspace, Thaksin’s private jet veered to the west and flew to Dubai, where the ex-leader lived in self-exile prior to 2023. Thousands of Thai netizens tracked the course of Thaksin’s jet, many speculating that he was once again fleeing the country.
Thaksin previously spent more than 15 years in exile to avoid charges of abuse of power and conflicts of interest, and returned to Thailand only in 2023, after striking a “devil’s pact” deal with his old enemies in the conservative royalist establishment. The deal was designed to keep the more progressive (and hence threatening) Move Forward Party, which won the most seats of any party, from forming government.
Thaksin later said that an immigration delay in Bangkok had forced him to change his plans to fly to Singapore, but the timing of the flight provided considerable grist for the Bangkok rumor mill. Thousands of netizens tracked Thaksin’s aircraft as it veered away from Singapore. The fact that he reportedly took with him his private cook added to speculation that Thaksin planned to stay abroad for an extended period.
The timing made all of this highly suspect. Thaksin’s departure took place just prior to the scheduled parliamentary vote that selected Anutin Charnvirakul as the country’s next prime minister, following the dismissal from office of Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra on August 29.
It also preceded a Supreme Court ruling that is expected to be handed down, which could have a considerable impact on Thaksin’s political influence in Thai politics. The case concerns the six-month hospitalization that followed his return to Thailand in August 2023, after 15 years of self-exile, which was facilitated by the political realignment that followed the general election of May 2023.
After touching down in Bangkok on August 22, Thaksin was taken into custody to begin serving an eight-year prison sentence dating from his time in power – the same charge that prompted him to leave the country in 2008. Almost immediately, however, he was transferred to the Police General Hospital after complaining of a variety of health complaints, including chest tightness and high blood pressure. There he remained until he was granted parole and released in February 2024.
At the time, the fact that Thaksin managed to avoid a single night in prison was criticized by people on both sides of the Thai political spectrum. The issue came under official scrutiny after the former Democrat Party lawmaker Charnchai Issarasenarak called on the Supreme Court to investigate Thaksin’s hospitalization, alleging that he may not have been sick and was instead the beneficiary of a special privilege. After the Supreme Court accepted the case, the Medical Council subsequently penalized three physicians involved in Thaksin’s hospital stay, one of whom received a warning for failing to meet professional standards, and two others who had their licenses suspended for providing false information.
While Thaksin’s return to Thailand was made possible by a political pact between the former leader and his foes in the royalist establishment, the fact that the Supreme Court was willing to take up the case suggested that the arrangement was coming under strain. One reason for this was the extent to which Thaksin flaunted his new-found freedom; he was widely perceived as the real force behind his daughter’s government. It was also clear that many royalist Thaksin opponents continue to harbor a strong mistrust of Thaksin, against whose influence they had fought since his initial landslide election in 2001.
Last year, the Constitutional Court removed Pheu Thai’s Srettha Thavisin from office over a minor breach of ethics. Since the beginning of this year, royalist conservatives have stoked a border dispute with Cambodia in order to undermine the standing of Thaksin and his daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who succeeded Srettha as prime minister. On July 1, the Constitutional Court suspended Paetongtarn from office pending an investigation into her conduct during a call with Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen, which the latter later leaked to the press. The Court then removed her from office on August 29 due to a breach of ethics.
While a court in Bangkok dismissed a royal insult case against Thaksin on August 22, a guilty verdict tomorrow could mark the terminus of his long informal reign as Thailand’s most powerful and influential politician.