On September 7, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru announced his plan to step down. His announcement came on the eve of September 8, when the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) had planned to hold a meeting to decide whether or not it would hold an emergency election to choose its new leader. With Ishiba’s announcement, the LDP moves full-swing into a transition mode, as the opposition parties start their preparation for the general election that would likely to follow sooner rather than later.
To many, Ishiba’s resignation comes as no surprise. After all, the LDP suffered the worst election loss in recent history when it, together with its coalition partner Komeito, lost the majority in the upper house after the election on July 20. The calls within the LDP for Ishiba’s resignation have only grown since, as he seemed determined to hold onto power, justifying his staying in office by emphasizing his “responsibility to govern the country.”
Some pointed out that Ishiba’s decision to step down was mean to pre-empt the attempts to oust him by a growing number of frustrated LDP Diet members, who signed a petition to hold an emergency LDP presidential election. One might say Ishiba quit before he was fired.
Despite the preoccupation about who will emerge as its next leader when all is said and done, the LDP must be under no illusion: Ishiba was not the dominant reason why the party suffered a major loss in July. To be sure, Ishiba’s tendency of paying excessive attention to the details of policies at the expense of offering a broader strategic vision for the country did not help the LDP at the polls. That said, the voters handed a devastating loss to the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition because they were fed up with the government’s less-than-desirable response to the issues they cared, such as inflation (including price hikes on necessities such as rice), their concerns for the stagnant quality of life, and above all, the lack of transparency and accountability.
Regardless of who emerges as the next leader, voters will not look kindly on the LDP if it cannot demonstrate that it has capacity to reform itself.
In fact, as lackluster as his support was, Ishiba had a few major successes in foreign policy and national security policy. For example, a week prior to his resignation announcement, Ishiba hosted a very successful meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The two leaders updated the bilateral joint declaration, modernized the two countries’ modes of security cooperation, and agreed to enhance cooperation in economic security including resilience in semiconductor supply chains, all under the shared vision to pursue “a free, open, peaceful, prosperous, and coercion-free Indo-Pacific region based on the rule of law.” As the world continues to grapple with the optics of Modi cozying up to Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization leaders’ meeting that immediately followed, Tokyo successfully reaffirming India’s commitment to a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) can be critical.
Furthermore, Japan successfully won the bid for Australia’s next-generation frigate acquisition program on August 5. The contract – which amounts to approximately $6.5 billion, with more spending expected over the long term – not only represents the biggest defense acquisition deal between Japan and Australia, but also was a watershed moment for Japan’s defense industry, which had long struggled to prove its competitiveness overseas. Japan overhauled its principles for defense equipment and technology exports in 2014, but the frigate contract with Australia is the first major defense sale for Japan.
Most importantly, Ishiba oversaw his government’s successfully completion of a bilateral trade agreement with the United States. Japan’s chief negotiator, Akazawa Ryosei, succeeded in completing a framework deal with the United States on July 22 that kept the tariff rate on Japan’s export to the U.S. down to 15 percent. Despite criticism at home, those talks opened the door for other U.S. major trading partners – including the European Union and South Korea – to follow Tokyo’s lead and conclude similar deals with Washington.
Ishiba may not have been able to develop a personal rapport with his U.S. counterpart, Donald Trump, in the way that late Prime Minister Abe Shinzo did, but he nonetheless managed to leave a positive impression on Trump when the two briefly met in the Oval Office in February 2025. Frankly speaking, in the era of Trump 2.0, that alone is an accomplishment.
Now that the LDP will move to elect its new leader, a few familiar names have already surfaced as the main contenders. The list includes seasoned veteran such as former Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Motegi Toshimitsu, former Minister for Economic Security Takaichi Sanae (who finished just behind Ishiba in the last LDP leadership race) and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa, as well as those who represent the “new” generation of the LDP such as Agricultural Minister Koizumi Shinjiro and former Minister for Economic Security Kobayashi Takayuki.
Whoever emerges to replace Ishiba, though, will face a thankless job of holding the LDP together while restoring the voters’ confidence in the party. In the meantime, Japan looks to a period of prolonged leadership vacuum when it cannot afford to have one.