September 11, 2001, was a turning point in modern history. Before the stunned eyes of the world, al-Qaida carried out massive terrorist attacks in the United States, home of the world’s most powerful intelligence and defense agencies. These attacks fundamentally transformed not only U.S. politics and security but also the international order.
At that time, Afghanistan, because of the Taliban’s hosting of al-Qaida, was at the center of these developments. In retaliation, the U.S. government launched an invasion that toppled the Taliban regime, but after 20 years of U.S. occupation, the new government collapsed even before the U.S. had completed its withdrawal. Now Afghanistan is once again under Taliban rule, and alarming signs are emerging that the country is turning once more into a safe haven for regional and international terrorist groups.
On the 24th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, the pressing question is: could the world face a similar threat again?
The Taliban’s return to power in August 2021 meant many things: the collapse of the elected government, the widespread violation of women’s rights and the rights of ethnic groups such as the Hazaras, and the systematic and targeted killing of members of Afghanistan’s former national security and defense forces. But the Taliban regime has also had serious consequences for regional and global security.
Although the Taliban pledged in the Doha Agreement to stop supporting terrorist organizations, especially al-Qaida, numerous reports by the United Nations and credible research centers indicate that these ties persist. The presence of al-Qaida leaders and members in Afghanistan, alongside the expansion of Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) attacks and the simultaneous activity of at least 20 other terrorist groups – including the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Ansarullah-Tajikistan, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, Jaish ul-Adl, the Baloch Liberation Army, Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Katibat Imam Bukhari, and similar groups – demonstrate the continuation of a threat that could again extend well beyond Afghanistan’s borders.
Today, Afghanistan provides an environment where terrorist groups can freely recruit, train, and build new networks. The activities and capacities of regional terrorist groups have sharply increased since the Taliban’s return, according to reliable reports, raising security costs for both the region and the world.
ISKP has turned Afghanistan into its stronghold. In addition to widespread attacks against Hazaras, Shiites, and Sufis, it has organized and executed significant operations across the region. The attack on a concert hall near Moscow, several attacks inside Iran – including at the Shah Cheragh shrine and the anniversary ceremony for Qassem Soleimani’s death – and dozens of attacks in Pakistan are examples of its growing reach. ISKP has also been expanding its influence into Uzbekistan and South Asian countries. Regional states and organizations have consistently expressed concern about this group’s serious threat and its central presence in Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, the presence of al-Qaida’s leadership in Afghanistan – despite Taliban denials – has been documented by multiple international reports. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the al-Qaida leader, was killed by a U.S. drone strike in one of the most secure neighbourhoods of Kabul, at a guesthouse owned by Sirajuddin Haqqani (the Taliban’s interior minister and leader of the Haqqani Network). Haqqani had been on the U.S. Department of Justice’s “Rewards for Justice” list until he was recently removed. Furthermore, the establishment of training centers for al-Qaida members and calls for “hijra” (migration) of al-Qaida affiliates from around the world to Afghanistan indicate that the country has once again become, even more than in the 1990s, a gathering hub for al-Qaida operatives.
The TTP, one of the most dangerous regional terrorist groups, has also gained alarming new capabilities since the Taliban’s takeover – in logistics and weaponry, as well as in manpower. In its recent attacks on Pakistani government forces, the TTP has employed drones and acquired advanced military weapons. The Pakistani government has repeatedly announced that Afghan nationals – including Taliban members and even the sons of Taliban officials – have been identified among the TTP’s fighters, with their bodies later returned to Afghanistan.
The TTP’s cooperation with the Baloch Liberation Army, both of which enjoy safe space and political and financial support inside Afghanistan, has become a major headache for Pakistan. At the same time, attacks inside Iran by the Baloch militant group Jaish ul-Adl have sharply increased.
China, meanwhile, has tried to pressure the Taliban by exploiting the issue of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). In the name of countering ETIM, Beijing has reportedly pushed the Taliban to crack down on Uyghurs, including those who fled to Afghanistan years ago as refugees from Chinese political repression. Some of these Uyghurs have been suppressed or even forcibly returned to China.
The expansion of al-Qaida branches in Africa and the Middle East, combined with the rise of ISKP in Afghanistan, reflects the strengthening of a global network whose goals are not limited to one region. Arrests of suspects linked to these groups in Europe, Asia, and Africa have highlighted the transnational dimension of today’s threats.
While comparing the current situation with the pre-9/11 environment may serve as a serious warning, it must be noted that carrying out an attack on the scale of 9/11 requires multiple factors: extensive logistical capacity, infiltration into target countries, and significant failures in intelligence systems. Nevertheless, the availability of a safe haven in Afghanistan and weak international monitoring are clear warning signs that must not be ignored.
Today’s jihadist-terrorist groups no longer need to physically deploy fighters abroad. Thanks to technology, they can now mobilize supporters and recruit new members remotely, using online platforms and propaganda. Individuals drawn to extremist Islamic narratives can easily become security threats within their own countries.
At the same time, discriminatory policies by some governments against Muslims and migrants create opportunities for jihadist-terrorist groups to exploit victims of such policies for their own purposes. It is believed that U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed policies – ranging from his handling of the Gaza conflict to the mass deportation of migrants – could offer groups like al-Qaida and the Islamic State an extraordinary opportunity to recruit disaffected individuals inside the United States for terrorist operations.
In Europe as well, the rise of far-right parties and deportation diplomacy, or the policies of governments that align with Israel against the people of Gaza (and remember that the “people of Gaza” does not equate to Hamas) may create conditions that play into the hands of jihadist-terrorist organizations. Given the widespread presence of radical individuals across the world, it is entirely possible that today’s circumstances could fuel parallel radical narratives: jihadist extremism on one hand and far-right extremism on the other.
Meanwhile, the Taliban regime, despite its efforts to present itself as committed to the Doha Agreement and international cooperation, has in practice proven otherwise. Both international reports and the Taliban’s own actions demonstrate that the group has no commitment to international norms. On the contrary, the Taliban take pride in violating them and consider this defiance part of their “jihad” against Western values.
They have abolished all Afghan laws, including the constitution, which had bound the government to comply with international documents such as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the principles of the United Nations, and agreements with international organizations. Recently, the Taliban leader ordered the closure of institutions responsible for Afghanistan’s cooperation with Interpol, effectively destroying one of the country’s last remaining channels of global engagement in law enforcement and crime-fighting.
Analyzing the current situation in Afghanistan is challenging. The Taliban have blocked access to independent sources, and many areas of the country remain inaccessible to free journalists and foreign observers. At the same time, the competing priorities of major powers and international crises – such as the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East – have reduced global attention on Afghanistan. This neglect could provide a golden opportunity for terrorist groups to advance their agendas with minimal external pressure.
In such circumstances, the international community faces a decisive choice. The experience of 9/11 showed that ignoring emerging terrorist threats carries an immense cost for global security. Today, more than ever, the world must pay closer attention to developments in Afghanistan. Enhanced intelligence cooperation, tighter control over extremist financial networks, countering the spread of ideological propaganda, and adopting coordinated policies among regional and global powers to establish a legitimate and inclusive government in Afghanistan are essential steps to prevent future catastrophes. What is certain is that ignoring these warning signs will only increase the risk of a new threat on the scale of 9/11.