A conventional understanding of Japanese politics holds that Ishiba Shigeru, whose party suffered a major setback in the July upper house election, must step down. Since becoming prime minister, he has lost three high-stakes elections in succession: the lower house election last October, the Tokyo assembly election in June, and now the upper house election.
“Three strikes and you’re out” – that’s how former LDP Secretary-General Motegi Toshimitsu put it. He was among the first senior party figures to openly call for Ishiba’s resignation.
Historically, all Liberal Democratic Party prime ministers who lost their majority in an upper house election – Uno Sousuke in 1989, Hashimoto Ryutaro in 1998, and Abe Shinzo in 2007 – resigned shortly thereafter. Major newspapers such as Yomiuri and Mainichi have reported that Ishiba’s resignation is now a matter of time.
However, based on Ishiba’s public statements, there is no indication that he intends to resign. The day after the election results were confirmed, Ishiba announced his commitment to preventing political stagnation in the face of ongoing tariff negotiations with the United States and a worsening security environment – an announcement widely interpreted as a public declaration that he would remain in power.
Since then, whenever questioned by the press or during Diet deliberations, he has categorically denied any intention to step down as prime minister, even accusing the media of misreporting his position. Even after facing a shouting crowd of fellow party members, Ishiba – at least for now – appears determined to soldier on.
Technically speaking, the results of an upper house election do not determine who becomes prime minister in Japan. The prime minister is selected during a special session of the Diet, which is convened after a lower house election or following the resignation of the Cabinet. Some within the LDP say that the party rules stipulate a “recall” clause, which allows them to redo a presidential election to select a new leader. But the rules in the book have never been tested, and there is a high bar for it to be enacted. Borrowing Ishiba’s own words from 2007 about then-Prime Minister Abe: “Unless he says he wants to quit, you can’t make him quit unless you follow the proper procedures.”
However, there are more substantial reasons that may have emboldened Ishiba to ignore his foremost critics – primarily conservative factions – who are pressuring him to resign. First, the public does not appear to be particularly concerned about whether Ishiba remains prime minister. Polls indicate that a majority of respondents believe Ishiba does not need to step down, and that number rises when the sample is limited to LDP supporters; according to NHK 69 percent of them prefer the Ishiba administration to continue.
Based on these polling results, two hypotheses can be drawn. First, public frustration seems to be directed more toward the LDP as a party – whose image remains tarnished by the political funds scandal – than toward Ishiba as an individual.
Second, the LDP’s diehard conservative base has largely abandoned it, thereby increasing the relative influence of moderate factions who tend to support Ishiba’s political style. This passive public support may have instilled in Ishiba a sense of responsibility to remain in office.
Ironically, although conservative members of the LDP are calling for Ishiba’s resignation, their efforts may be undermining their own cause. For nearly two decades, Japanese conservatives have been Ishiba’s archrivals, and the distrust between them is mutual. Reports suggest that their attempt to force Ishiba from power may have only strengthened his resolve to stay, as he views them as the primary reason for the LDP’s recent electoral losses – particularly given that a significant number of them have been implicated in the slush fund controversy.
There are many roadblocks ahead for Ishiba as he fulfills his responsibility to govern. First, the loss of both houses in the Diet means he can no longer hide behind the cloak of responsibility – he will have to concede even more ground to the opposition. Some parties have openly refused to cooperate with Ishiba, though they imply they may reverse course if he fully embraces their demands. For example, Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) leader Tamaki Yuichiro stated that he will not “cooperate with an Ishiba administration that does not fulfill its promise,” leaving room for collaboration once Ishiba begins accommodating Tamaki’s party.
However, with the growing influence of big-spending parties following the upper house election, Ishiba – whose fiscal hawkishness arguably cost him the election – will need to swallow some bitter pills if he hopes to pass legislation or allocate budgetary resources to his signature policy goals.
The potential loss of his right-hand man may plunge Ishiba’s government into jeopardy. Moriyama Hiroshi, the LDP secretary-general, is one of the most powerful figures within the party. In addition to being the de jure number two, he has leveraged personal ties cultivated during his tenure as chairperson of the Diet Affairs Committee to build a legislative alliance that enabled Ishiba to pass the annual budget and subsequent laws without a majority in the lower house – effectively making Moriyama the de facto prime minister, some have argued.
Nevertheless, there are growing calls within the party for someone to bear responsibility for the election defeat. Moriyama, who spearheaded the campaign, is widely seen as the sacrificial lamb, and he appears to understand his fate.
If Moriyama were to resign, it is highly doubtful that he could be replaced by an equally seasoned politician capable of assisting Ishiba in managing opposition forces in both houses. And even if a replacement were found, it would be risky for that individual to commit themselves to the Ishiba administration, which may be turning into a sinking ship.
Nobody truly knows whether Ishiba means what he says – except Ishiba himself. He may indeed resign at any moment but appears to be maneuvering toward an honorable end game. As a devoted Christian, Ishiba may even interpret his current circumstances as a divine calling. Notably, the subtitle of his campaign book, published before he became prime minister, was “My Policy, My Destiny.”