On September 3, China will hold what official sources are calling a “massive military parade” to mark the 80th anniversary of Victory Day – the day Beijing commemorates the officially surrender of Japan and the end of World War II. For China, the surrender of Japan marked the end to the much longer “War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression,” which began with the invasion of Manchuria in 1931.
According to Xinhua, China’s state news agency, the parade next week “will involve thousands of troops, over 100 aircraft and hundreds of ground armaments.” It will showcase not only “new-generation” weapons, but also the “new layout of the structure of the Chinese armed forces,” which have been reorganized several times under Xi Jinping.
Wu Zeke, a senior officer of the Joint Staff Department of China’s Central Military Commission and one of the officers overseeing planning for the parade, said at a press conference that the parade is meant to showcase “Chinese military’s strong ability to safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests, as well as to uphold world peace.”
This is not only a military event, but a diplomatic one. China’s Foreign Ministry announced on August 28 that 26 foreign leaders had accepted invitations to attend the parade and other Victory Day commemorations. The full list is as follows:
- Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan
- Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev
- Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko
- Cambodian King Norodom Sihamoni
- Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel
- Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto
- Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian
- Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev
- Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov
- Lao President Thongloun Sisoulith
- Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim
- Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu
- Mongolian President Khurelsukh Ukhnaa
- Myanmar’s junta leader (whom China delicately described as the “acting president”) Min Aung Hlaing
- Nepali Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli
- North Korean leader Kim Jong Un
- Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif
- President of the Republic of the Congo Denis Sassou Nguesso
- Russian President Vladimir Putin
- Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic
- Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico
- Tajik President Emomali Rahmon
- Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov
- Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev
- Vietnamese President Luong Cuong
- Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa
The most notable inclusion on the list is North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, who has never attended a multilateral diplomatic event, instead preferring bilateral summitry on the rare occasions when he travels. Kim’s presence in Beijing thus marks a major shift in his engagement with the world, and opens the possibility of a host of sideline meetings.
In particular, it raises the prospect of a trilateral summit between Kim, Putin, and China’s President Xi Jinping. North Korea-Russia exchanges have been flowing fast and furious since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, epitomized by the signing of a new security agreement during Putin’s visit to Pyongyang in June 2024. But North Korea’s diplomatic engagements with China have stalled, limiting the prospect of full-fledged trilateral cooperation. Kim’s attendance at the summit could change that.
Also of note is the fact that all five Central Asian presidents will be attending, as well as six heads of state or government from Southeast Asia. That’s not surprising – China has particularly strong diplomatic relations with countries in its immediate neighborhood – but still worth pointing out as a manifestation of Beijing’s foreign policy clout.
It’s more eye-catching that the presidents of both Armenia and Azerbaijan will be attending, shortly after both men made the trip to Washington, D.C. for a historic summit with U.S. President Donald Trump. During the Washington summit, the three countries announced plans for a new transport corridor. But when it comes to regional connectivity in the South Caucasus, China can offer something the U.S. can’t: the prospect of face time with Iran’s president, who will also be attending.
The presence of Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian in Beijing is a strong signal in and of itself, coming after the brief war between Iran and Israel earlier this year, and Europe’s recent decision to announcement “snapback” sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program. Palestine’s president, however, will not be in attendance – another interesting signal given the groundswell of support for the Palestinian state amid Israel’s merciless campaign of retribution in Gaza.
Indeed, equally interesting is the question of who will not be attending China’s 2025 Victory Day parade, especially compared to the previous iteration.
China held a similar parade in 2015, on the 70th anniversary of the end of the war – the first time such a parade had been held in Tiananmen Square outside of China’s National Day, October 1. Differences in the attendee list provide an illuminating snapshot of China’s changing relationships with other countries. For example, Mahmoud Abbas of Palestine attended the parade in 2015 but will apparently not appear in Beijing in 2025.
(The full list of 2015 attendees is appended at the end of the article, for those who are curious.)
The 2015 parade drew attendance from six heads of state or government from Europe, all in the Central and Eastern European region. However, a much larger number of European states sent minister-level representatives. Given the downslide in China-Europe ties since 2015, the decrease in Europe’s attendance at an event commemorating victory in what China likes to frame at “The World Anti-Fascist War” is not surprising, but it is telling.
Meanwhile, China managed to boost attendance from leaders in its immediate neighborhood: Central Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia are all sending more leaders to the 2025 parade. Arguably the most interesting difference in the 2015 and 2025 guest lists involves the Koreas: Kim Jong Un did not attend the 2015 parade, but South Korean President Park Geun-hye did (much to the consternation of U.S. analysts). This year, South Korea’s President Lee Jae-myung will stay away – despite concern prior to his inauguration that he would be “pro-China” – while Kim is attending.
Generally, leaders from other parts of the world seemed more hesitant to attend this year. The Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Oceania, South America, and even sub-Saharan Africa all will have a decreased leader-level presence compared to 2015.
This is not to say that these states’ relationships with China have deteriorated; in Africa, in particular, China remains a popular partner, as evidence by attendance at the FOCAC summit last year. But there’s a far cry between attending a regional diplomatic summit and showing up to clap for China’s military. Given the reality of ever-worsening China-U.S. competition, mixed with the a mercurial U.S. president with a marked “with-me-or-against-me” mentality, some of these countries may have decided to quietly downgrade their presence simply to avoid the perception of taking sides.
Appendix: Head of state/government-level attendees at the V-Day parade in 2015:
- Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko
- Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Chairman of the Presidency Dragan Čović
- Cambodian King Norodom Sihamoni of Cambodia
- Czech Republic President Miloš Zeman
- Democratic Republic of the Congo President Joseph Kabila
- Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt
- Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn
- Fijian President Jioji Konrote
- Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev
- Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev
- Lao President Choummaly Sayasone
- Mongolian President Elbegdorj Tsakhia
- Montenegrin President Filip Vujanovic
- Myanmar President Thein Sein
- Pakistani President Mamnoon Hussain
- Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas of Palestine
- Russian President Vladimir Putin
- Serbian President Tomislav Nikolić
- South African President Jacob Zuma
- South Korea President Park Geun-hye
- Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
- Tajik President Emomali Rahmon
- Timor-Leste President Taur Matan Ruak
- Uzbek President Islam Karimov
- Vanuatu Prime Minister Sato Kilman
- Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro
- Vietnamese President Truong Tan Sang