Few would have imagined a decade ago that India and Armenia would one day stand as visible strategic partners. For years, their ties were cordial but peripheral, overshadowed by larger powers and deeper alliances. Armenia, scarred by its vulnerability in the South Caucasus, leaned almost exclusively on Russia for military protection. India, preoccupied with its neighborhood and its rivalry with Pakistan, had little reason to view Yerevan as more than a distant acquaintance. Today, as Armenia and Azerbaijan explore fragile steps toward peace, the debate turns to how India’s newly established role will adapt in a less conflict-driven context.
To grasp how this new debate emerged, we must look back to 2020, when the Second Karabakh War fundamentally altered Armenia’s security calculus. For New Delhi, watching Islamabad’s growing ties with both Ankara and Baku, Armenia appeared less like a remote state and more like a natural counterbalance. This convergence gave rise to a partnership rooted in defense but carrying broader geopolitical significance.
Before this turning point, Armenia’s security had been overwhelmingly dependent on Russia. Between 2011 and 2020, more than 90 percent of its major arms imports came from Moscow. Deliveries included Su-30SM fighter jets, Mi-8 helicopters, air defense batteries and armored vehicles while Russian troops in Gyumri reinforced Moscow’s role as ultimate guarantor. This dependency was as psychological as it was material: Russia was seen as the protector that would step in should existential threats arise.
That faith totally collapsed in 2020. As Azerbaijani forces advanced with Turkish backing and modern drones, Russia largely stood aside. Armenia was left to fight a modern war with outdated weapons and old-fashioned military tactics. The outcome was devastating, and the myth of Russia as a dependable ally cracked, opening space for new actors to enter.
The years since 2020 have seen unprecedented diversification in Armenia’s defense partnerships. India and France emerged as the two most significant suppliers, filling the void Russia left behind. India quickly rose to become Armenia’s largest defense partner. Yerevan signed contracts worth around $2 billion, purchasing Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers, Akash surface-to-air missile batteries, and Swathi counter-battery radars. Deliveries of artillery, armored vehicles and drones followed. For India, these deals were not just commercial; they were also geopolitical signals angering Russia. India’s rising profile was criticized many times by the Russian side. However, India was asserting itself as a credible arms exporter while quietly reminding both Turkiye and Pakistan that it could influence their neighborhood.
Some observers dismiss the relationship as purely transactional. This interpretation misses the broader significance. For Armenia, India is not just a supplier but a partner that shares the experience of living under constant strategic pressure. For India, the South Caucasus is far from irrelevant: Pakistan’s growing alignment with Azerbaijan, underpinned by Turkish support, gives New Delhi ample reason to support Armenia. Supplying arms to Yerevan thus serves as both a strategic counterweight and a statement of India’s ambition to operate as a global security provider. The relationship carries minimal geopolitical cost, yet yields symbolic leverage in India’s rivalries with Turkiye and Pakistan.
The evolving regional landscape has accelerated this alignment. Russia, busy with Ukraine, has struggled to deliver even contracted weapons to Armenia. As of 2025, the United States has become more active in mediating peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, highlighted by a trilateral summit hosted at the White House, but Washington offers political and economic support rather than military guarantees. India stepped into this vacuum, providing not only arms but also a sense of solidarity.
Geography adds another layer to this story. Armenia’s position along the prospective North-South Transport Corridor, linking India to Russia and Europe via Iran, gives Yerevan additional strategic weight. While the corridor faces political and logistical hurdles, it strengthens India’s rationale for engaging with the South Caucasus not just militarily, but economically as well. Reflecting this logic, India, Iran, and Armenia held their second trilateral consultations in late 2024, underscoring Yerevan’s role in regional connectivity and its importance in India’s outreach toward Eurasia. Additionally, India and Armenia held their first defense consultations during the same period.
This partnership is not without limits. Currently, Armenia’s geography remains unforgiving: it is landlocked, reliant on Iranian transit and isolated by closed borders with Turkiye and Azerbaijan. For India, there are questions as to whether it can spare resources to entrench itself in the Caucasus while prioritizing the Indo-Pacific.
Moreover, defense ties risk overshadowing other avenues of cooperation. Trade in pharmaceuticals, IT collaboration and cultural exchanges remain underdeveloped although there are hopes to make Armenia a tech powerhouse in collaboration with India over the long term. There is potential to increase the trade volume, which has reached approximately $400 million. Without diversification, the partnership could become fragile, sustained only by the persistence of regional tensions – and if peace with Baku stabilizes, the urgency of defense imports may recede.
After the U.S. involvement in the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, two scenarios illustrate the range of possibilities. If peace holds, the Armenia-India relationship could mature into a more balanced partnership, with technology, education, and trade gaining weight alongside defense. The inclusion of India in the development of the new trade corridor could become another agenda. But it remains unclear how India will respond to Turkiye’s growing influence in the region in that event.
If conflict persists or reignites, Armenia’s dependence on Indian arms will deepen. India will gain influence but also find itself increasingly bound to Caucasus security dynamics. Either way, one fact is clear: Armenia will not return to exclusive reliance on Russia. India has already established itself as a serious Indo-Pacific player in the South Caucasus.
The trajectory of Armenia-India relations reflects a profound strategic realignment. For Yerevan, India has become both a source of hard security and a symbol of diversification at a time when reliance on any single protector has proven dangerous. For New Delhi, Armenia offers not just a market but a geopolitical platform to signal its ability to operate beyond South Asia, counter rivals such as Turkiye and Pakistan, and consolidate its position as a credible defense exporter.
As regional dynamics evolve with fragile peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the partnership will inevitably be tested. Whether it broadens into economic and technological cooperation or remains centered on defense, the Armenia-India relationship will continue to serve as a barometer of how small states and rising powers adapt to the uncertainties of a multipolar world.