Busan, 2035. The city’s skyline is framed by offshore wind turbines that stretch to the horizon. South Korea now exports more renewable energy technology than it ever imported fossil fuels. Air pollution is a distant memory. The country has met, or even exceeded, its climate targets. The decision that set it all in motion happened a decade ago, in this very city.
In an alternate reality, Busan in 2035 is marked by dark skies, murky seas, and people masked against pollution. The offshore wind farms never materialized beyond pilot projects. Coal plants still run, supplemented by imported gas. South Korea’s neighbors dominate clean tech markets, while Korea imports their products. Climate impacts haunt ordinary people. Here too, the turning point was Busan in 2025 – but when it mattered most, the wrong choice was made.
Busan recently hosted the 16th Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM16) from August 25 to 27, the first global event presided over by the new Lee Jae-myung government. Within the span of less than a year, the port city has hosted INC-5 (the latest negotiations for the U.N. global plastics treaty), and the 10th Our Ocean Conference (OOC), a summit on ocean protection.
South Korea clearly knows how to host global climate events. Now, the government wants to host COP33 in 2028. However, far too often, real action takes a backseat to pageantry. Once the cameras leave, commitments fade. CEM16 risks becoming another photo-op unless South Korea chooses substance over spectacle.
The stakes are high. Wind and solar make up only 6 percent of South Korea’s power, lagging far behind its peers. Its 2030 emissions-reduction pledge, the previous Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the U.N. framework, remains out of reach under current policies. The new government announced that it will set a 2035 target in its updated NDC by October, ahead of COP30.
A joint study by the University of Maryland and Solutions for Our Climate (SFOC) revealed that a high-ambition path could cut South Korea’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 61 percent from 2018 levels by 2035. This would mean phasing out coal by 2035, canceling new liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, deploying renewables and energy storage, retiring blast furnaces, and electrifying transport. With solar, wind, and storage set to become increasingly cost-competitive, South Korea could not only meet its 2030 climate pledge but also set itself on a credible net-zero path while creating new jobs and industries of the future. What is needed now are effective policy designs to translate political will into action.
To achieve its enhanced 2035 NDC and strengthen competitiveness, South Korea must accelerate renewables through bold investments in grid modernization, energy storage, and offshore wind. A predictable roadmap – backed by inter-ministerial cooperation and efficient use of marine space – would enable carbon neutrality and economic growth together. Offshore wind, central to achieving 2035 goals, has a new governance framework under the Offshore Wind Special Act. However, projects developed through this framework will not become operational until after 2031, leaving uncertainty over how South Korea can advance deployment in the meantime amid military rules and weak planning.
Despite these plans, coal still dominates. Renewables are throttled by outdated permitting and grid rules. Arbitrary local regulations, like solar distancing rules that have cut site availability by more than half, further delay projects. Moreover, LNG, still branded as a “transition fuel,” has become a dangerous detour, locking in dependency instead of leapfrogging to clean power.
If CEM16 is to matter, the following steps are critical. South Korea must commit to a faster coal phaseout by 2035 in line with science and its own NDCs. Every extra year of coal burns away credibility. It must systematically eliminate regulatory roadblocks with practical policies and ensure they are executed to scale up renewables at speed. And it must drop the “transition fuel” narrative and move directly to renewables and storage.
These are not radical ideas. They are pragmatic steps that countries are already taking. The United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and the European Union have pledged through the Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP) to end public financing for new fossil fuel projects and redirect investment into renewables. Over 50 governments have joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), committing to phase out coal entirely. By contrast, South Korea – home to world-class engineering firms and cutting-edge technology – still hesitates to make the same pledge.
If South Korea is serious about being a global climate leader, it must declare a clear end date for coal, rapidly scale renewables with streamlined approvals, and redirect public finance toward clean energy industries that can secure jobs and competitiveness for the decades ahead.
The choices made in 2025 will define South Korea’s climate, economy, and leadership for the coming decades. With its engineering expertise, manufacturing capacity, and global trade networks, the country could be at the forefront if it chooses to act. By 2035, South Korea will either be a clean energy leader or a laggard weighed down by fossil fuels. The difference depends on whether today’s leaders choose a show or a shift.