In July 2025, the International Court of Justice recognized the “existential threat” that climate change-induced issues like rising sea levels pose to countries worldwide. Among the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of climate change are Pacific Island nations – Tuvalu, for example, is predicted to be uninhabitable by 2050 due to rising sea levels.
In response to this existential threat, Tuvalu signed the Falepili Union with Australia in late 2023. While this treaty offers important benefits, including a special visa pathway to Australia, its unprecedented nature raises critical questions about how it will be implemented. To ensure the Falepili Union fulfills its promise as a just and sustainable model for climate relocation, both Tuvalu and Australia must address key implementation gaps through inclusive, culturally grounded, and future-focused policy actions.
The Falepili Union, a first-of-its-kind treaty, was signed in November 2023 under then-Tuvaluan Prime Minister Kausea Natano and entered into force in August 2024 under current Prime Minister Feleti Teo. The title of the agreement refers to the Tuvaluan concept of fale pili, which means to look after one’s neighbor like family.
The treaty covers a wide range of areas, including climate and security cooperation, but a key aspect outlined in Article 3 centers on human mobility. The treaty allows Tuvaluans to relocate to Australia through a visa unique to the agreement. This visa specifically grants Tuvaluans permanent residency in Australia, as well as access to government education and healthcare services. Under this mobility scheme, Australia plans to grant up to 280 Tuvaluans – selected via a lottery system – permanent residency every year, which means that every person currently living in Tuvalu could relocate to Australia within the next 40 years.
The first round of registrations for the visa took place from June 16 to July 18, and received 8,750 applications for the 280 slots. Notably, Tuvalu’s population is around 10,000. Simon Kofe, Tuvalu’s minister for transport, energy, and innovation, believes many applications were from Tuvaluans currently living overseas, rather than residing in Tuvalu. The Tuvaluan diaspora is proportionately large compared to its domestic population, with about 4,700 Tuvaluan expatriates living in New Zealand alone. The successful applicants for this year’s round of visas were selected via a random ballot on July 25.
Given that the visa allows for the “freedom for unlimited travel” to and from Australia, this visa could serve as a pathway for circular migration, wherein Tuvaluans could gain education and employment outcomes in Australia to bring back to Tuvalu’s workforce. Similarly, Tuvaluans working in Australia could send remittances back home, which would support their families, allow access to resources to adapt to climate change, and improve the local economy.
Despite these potential gains for Tuvalu, the demand for the visa, and the reactions of “excitement” within Tuvalu and Australia’s Tuvaluan diaspora community, there has also been backlash from the Tuvaluan community regarding the Falepili treaty. Given the difficulties with food security and lack of affordable housing Tuvaluans face in Australia, Tuvaluans on this visa may not have an adequate safety net when they come to Australia. Some Tuvaluans are also concerned about the potential for brain drain and the visa reinforcing the perception that Tuvaluans are “climate refugees.”
Other criticisms include the lack of consultation with the Tuvaluan community in both Tuvalu and Australia prior to the signing of the treaty. Enele Sopoaga a former Tuvaluan prime minister and current member of Parliament, noted that “[the treaty] was never consulted with the people of Tuvalu, nor was it ever raised in Parliament. It is not a climate change response. It is ceding Tuvalu[’s] sovereignty to Australia.”
Sopoaga’s comments referred to specific provisions in Article 4 of the Falepili Union stipulating that “Tuvalu shall mutually agree with Australia any partnership, arrangement or engagement with any other State or entity on security and defense-related matters.” In other words, the treaty grants Australia the power to veto any security agreement that Tuvalu might seek to enter into. In exchange, Australia also commits to being legally required to assist Tuvalu in the case of natural disasters, public health emergencies of international concern, or military aggression.
Experts have viewed this provision as Australia’s attempt to prevent Tuvalu from ever signing a defense agreements with China, as the Solomon Islands famously did in 2022. While the Falepili Union offers important opportunities for Tuvalu, particularly through its climate mobility pathway, this aspect of the treaty requires further explanation to secure public buy-in.
Given the lack of public consultation with Tuvaluans in both Tuvalu and Australia prior to the treaty’s signing, it is essential that the government of Tuvalu, with support from Australia, carry out engagement efforts in both locations to foster transparency and democratic participation. These consultations should ensure that Tuvaluans across all islands, communities, and diaspora groups fully understand the purpose, terms, and long-term implications of the agreement.
In addition, mechanisms should be established to facilitate direct information-sharing between Tuvaluans who have already relocated under the treaty and those considering relocation. Structured dialogue sessions, supported by governments in partnership with NGOs and community groups, would allow prospective participants to gain insights from the lived experiences of those already participating in the program. This peer-to-peer model would strengthen community understanding and trust in the process.
Following the relocation of the initial cohort of 280 Tuvaluans, a formal mentorship or “buddy system” should be introduced. Pairing newly relocated individuals with those already settled in Australia would provide vital support during the transition, offering practical advice and social connection as they adapt to new environments.
A key area of concern is the preservation of Tuvaluan cultural identity, which is at risk as communities disperse. Cultural heritage is a foundational part of Tuvaluan society. To safeguard this, Tuvaluan-led community organizations should be supported by Australian funding, Tuvaluan leadership, and organizations dedicated to promoting and preserving cultural heritage. These community organizations would serve as cultural hubs, helping maintain continuity, promote intergenerational exchange, and foster a sense of belonging among Tuvaluans in diaspora.
Additionally, a centralized digital support platform should be developed for those selected for the visa. This portal would serve as a one-stop resource, offering access to employment listings, housing support, legal information, cultural orientation materials, and other relevant services. A well-designed and easily navigable system would help streamline the relocation process and reduce the administrative burden on both participants and officials.
Under the Falepili Union, Tuvaluans gain access to healthcare and education services in Australia. These two sectors represent some of the most compelling benefits for those selected under the visa arrangement. To support Tuvalu’s long-term development and reduce the need for outward migration, targeted funding should be mobilized to strengthen healthcare and education systems within Tuvalu. While Australia is a natural partner, additional resources could also be drawn from multilateral organizations and development funds. By improving the quality and accessibility of these essential services at home, Tuvaluans may be less likely to seek relocation. Investing in these areas would not only enhance the well-being of the population but also promote greater national resilience and self-sufficiency.
Finally, the potential for long-term brain drain must be addressed through proactive policy design. A Climate Adaptation Rising Leaders Fellowship, jointly funded by Australia and Tuvalu, should be established to train Tuvaluan youth in areas such as climate policy, governance, environmental science, and sustainable development. Participants would commit to staying in Tuvalu to apply their skills in support of national adaptation goals. This would ensure that even as some Tuvaluans relocate, others are empowered to build domestic capacity and contribute directly to the nation’s resilience in the face of climate change.
The Falepili Union offers a new model for how small island states facing the existential threats of climate change can facilitate relocation. Yet as one Tuvaluan, Taukiei Kitara, poignantly asked, “Is this really fale pili?” To answer that question, Tuvalu and Australia must commit to refining the treaty through inclusive consultation, transparent implementation, and ongoing community engagement. By addressing gaps in the implementation process, both governments can ensure the Falepili Union evolves into a partnership that not only protects Tuvalu’s future but also honors the values it was meant to uphold.