Bangladesh’s caretaker government is preparing to implement a plan in the contiguous troubled region of Arakan in Myanmar, which has the potential to cause large-scale disturbances with ramifications that could extend beyond the region.
The trigger for the strategy came from a combination of many factors, beginning with the burden of sheltering over a million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh’s coastal district of Cox’s Bazar, whose numbers had increased steadily since the late 1970s when the first “clearance operation” was launched against the community by the Myanmar military.
Rohingya involvement in terror and criminal activities in Bangladesh is well-documented. At least four armed outfits are active in the refugee camps, of which the Rohingya Solidarity Organization (RSO) has assumed the most prominent role over the past three years after a long period of lying dormant owing to a lack of resources.
Adding to the fears of the Bangladesh government and its eagerness for repatriation of the Rohingya to their homes was the Arakan Army (AA)’s string of victories against the Myanmar military in Rakhine State over the past two years. Currently, the AA controls as many as 14 out of a total of 17 townships in the state, including Maungdaw bordering Bangladesh, which has a Rohingya majority. Dhaka is apprehensive of more refugees hitting the trail to Bangladesh as the war between the AA and the military continues in Rakhine State.
The Bangladesh government had been expressing its concerns over the failure to repatriate the refugees to Myanmar and its adverse ramifications in the country. Bangladesh seeks an urgent and permanent solution to the Rohingya crisis, which the government plans to highlight in a series of conclaves beginning with the stakeholders’ conference on the Rohingya to be held in Cox’s Bazar on August 24-26, in New York on September 30, and in Qatar on December 6.
The Idea Behind ‘Rakhine Corridor’
In the meantime, Bangladesh’s caretaker government proposed the “Rakhine Corridor“, which was envisaged as a humanitarian and logistical passage connecting Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar to Myanmar’s Rakhine State. The idea was to establish a protected and globally monitored route for the delivery of aid, the evacuation of wounded civilians, and eventually the repatriation of Rohingya refugees who fled Rakhine State.
The U.S. had expressed support for the Rakhine Corridor, viewing it as an opportunity to establish a foothold in a region where China’s presence is increasing. Although packaged as a humanitarian project, the corridor was contentious owing to its geostrategic location and the players involved.
Sources claimed that the Bangladesh government’s real objective behind the corridor was to establish a ‘safe zone’ for the Rohingya in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. The planned corridor was to run through Teknaf, which the AA opposed.
Sources alleged that Bangladesh’s plan was to bring huge aid and then empower the Rohingya armed groups to loot the aid to justify that there is no security for the Rohingya in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. The plan was also to deploy a U.N. Peacekeeping Force in Rakhine State. Currently, Bangladesh has 5,619 troops with the UN deployed across ten countries.
Another plan of the Bangladesh government, as sources claimed, was to infiltrate armed Rohingya cadres in Rakhine State with the support of the military in both countries. Incidentally, the Myanmar junta had firmed up an alliance with several Rohingya armed groups last year as a tactic to stall the advance of the AA in Maungdaw.
Corridor Aborted, But the Plan Continues
In Bangladesh, there was concern that the corridor would infringe upon its sovereignty and was being supported by the U.S. for geostrategic gains. Not surprisingly, many political parties, including the left parties and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), opposed the scheme. The final nail in the project was driven in late May, when Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman issued a stern warning asking the government to cancel the project.
However, observers are certain that the Bangladesh government, with the support of the U.S., has continued to pursue the goal of a safe zone for the Rohingya.
“Dhaka’s plan is to prepare well-armed cadres of Rohingya fighters who will wage war against the AA in collaboration with the Myanmar junta. The Bangladesh government is hoping that the AA would be compelled to fight on two fronts that could eventually result in the creation of a safe zone in Maungdaw,” an Indian government official told The Diplomat, adding that “The issue has also been discussed by Bangladesh’s dignitaries with Naypyidaw several times.”
The training modules for the Rohingya have been reportedly scaled up in Bangladesh. The military complex in Mymensingh is supposedly one of the active centers where small groups of Rohingya are being trained and equipped with weapons. Other centers are spread across Cox’s Bazar and Bagerhaat, where training is imparted by select squads of the army.
Armed cadres of the Rohingya Solidarity Organization (RSO) pause for prayers, somewhere along the Myanmar-Bangladesh border.
Facebook/ RSO
Social media posts by the RSO and Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) provide evidence of the rising number of armed fighters. On August 20, an RSO post on Facebook displayed a video of armed cadres marching, with the caption “A rally of the special forces of the Rohingya Solidarity Organization (RSO) is walking inside Arakan (Myanmar) for the purpose of targeting the enemies.”
On the same day, another video showed a batch of fighters in battle fatigues being trained. Cadres are seen mostly with G-3 rifles that are used by the Myanmar army.
Pakistan Grabs the Opportunity
The changing political situation in Bangladesh has offered Pakistan ample space to get engaged in strengthening the radical groups. Sources in Bangladesh claimed that a delegation from Pakistan that was accompanied by officers of the Bangladesh security agency, the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), surveyed the entire zone on July 29 from Teknaf to Shah Porir Dwip on the banks of the Naf river in Cox’s Bazar that borders Myanmar. However, the reason for the survey is unclear.
A section of Indian government officials believes that Pakistan’s objective is not so much to support the Rohingya to regain their homeland as it is to trigger disturbances in India.
“We will start from the East,” a senior Pakistani army general said in a recent interview with The Economist, meaning that Pakistan would use Bangladesh to launch operations against India from the east. Bangladesh-Pakistan relations have improved significantly since the fall of the Awami League government in Bangladesh last year.
India’s Border Security Force (BSF) will raise the issue of swelling anti-India activities in Bangladesh by extremist outfits in an upcoming meeting with the Border Guard Bangladesh scheduled to be held in Dhaka from August 25.
Meanwhile, in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, the AA has stepped up preparations on a war footing. Its political wing — the United League of Arakan (ULA) — has enacted the National Defense Emergency Provision to allow conscription of adults aged up to 45 years for military service. Adults in this age group have been barred from leaving Rakhine State without a valid reason.
The Bangladesh government has been in regular touch with the AA for the past two years, exploring ways and means for the repatriation of the Rohingya to their homes in Maungdaw. The AA has maintained that repatriation is not feasible under the existing circumstances without financial aid and a rehabilitation package, which prompted the Bangladesh government to lobby for global support and plan some conclaves across several countries.
While the idea of a Rakhine Corridor has been dropped, efforts to implement the repatriation of Rohingya continue, albeit with altered tactics that could spark more disturbances and bloodshed in the region.