Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is set to visit India this week, a trip that is set to coincide with the first bilateral naval exercise between the two countries in the South China Sea.
Marcos is set to visit the country on August 4-8, the Hindustan Times reported yesterday, citing “people familiar with the matter.” During Marcos’ visit, his first to India since taking office in June 2022, he will hold talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and “deliver a speech on the theme of the Philippines and India as partners for a rules-based order” on August 6. While the trip has seemingly not yet been officially announced by either side, he will presumably also meet with a range of other Indian officials and business leaders during the lengthy visit.
The Hindustan Times also reported that on August 3, India and the Philippines will begin a two-day “bilateral maritime cooperative activity,” or MCA, in waters close to the Scarborough Shoal, a focal point of the maritime dispute between China and the Philippines. The exercise “will focus on enhancing inter-operability and maritime cooperation” and will commence after an August 2 port visit in Manila by four Indian warships: the guided missile destroyer INS Delhi, the survey ship INS Sandhayak, the fleet tanker INS Shakti, and the anti-submarine warfare corvette INS Kiltan.
Aside from the survey vessel, these warships will then reportedly take part in the exercise, the aim of which is “to further strengthen the robust maritime relationship between the Philippine Navy and the Indian Navy,” Philippine Navy Capt. John Alcos told USNI News.
Scarborough Shoal lies around 198 kilometers due west of Luzon, well within the Philippines’ internationally recognized exclusive economic zone (EEZ). But the triangular shoal fell under China’s control after a 10-week stand-off with the Philippines in 2012, and the China Coast Guard has maintained a nearly permanent presence at the shoal in the 11 years since.
The Shoal has been one of several features in the South China Sea that have become flashpoints between China and the Philippines over the past few years, as Beijing has ramped up the frequency and intensity of its incursions into the Philippines’ EEZ, which it claims under its expansive “nine-dash line” claim. These have resulted in a number of dangerous high-seas encounters between the two nations’ coast guard vessels, which have pushed the two countries close to conflict. In the case of Scarborough Shoal, most of the tensions have involved Chinese attempts to block Filipino fishermen from accessing the shoal’s fish-rich internal lagoon.
The Chinese encroachments have prompted the Philippines to expand maritime cooperation with its long-time security ally, the United States, and other “like-minded” partners, including Australia, Canada, and Japan. During his State of the Nation address last week, Marcos said that such alliances helped make the Philippines more secure. “Our confidence is higher because we have more allies, which would support us in the time of grave need,” he said, referring to ongoing frictions in the South China Sea.
The fact that India is now reportedly joining in these efforts is unsurprising, given its shared concerns about China’s growing maritime power, including in the South China Sea. Last year, India revised its stance on the 2016 South China Sea arbitral ruling, moving from acknowledgement of the ruling to active calls for adherence to the judgment. The ruling supported most of the Philippines’ claims and said that China’s maximalist claims have no ruling under international maritime law.
The planned MCA marks an important expansion of naval cooperation between India and the Philippines, moving it beyond more basic engagements such as passing exercises and disaster response operations. It also extends a gradual strengthening of defense cooperation between the two sides. In 2022, the Philippines became the first foreign country to purchase India’s BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles, the second batch of which were delivered to the country in April of this year. Manila is also reported to be in talks for the purchase of the shorter-range Akash missile.
As Collin Koh of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University told Newsweek, “If this is the first bilateral MCA between India and the Philippines as designated officially, it sends a clear signal that India is signaling to be overtly supporting the Philippines in the South China Sea row with Beijing.”