Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is all set to launch a nationwide protest movement from August 5. In addition to demanding the release of the imprisoned former prime minister, and protesting against the government’s “politically motivated” suppression of Khan and the PTI, the party is looking to demonstrate its mass support to those it terms as the “real decision-makers.”
The omnipotent military establishment, meanwhile, is overseeing the formulation of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)-led government’s newly announced paramilitary force, which will be tasked with “internal security, riot control, and counter-terrorism.”
Khan has been in prison since August 2023, fighting a string of cases, including eight pertaining to the violent demonstrations that took place on May 9 of the same year in response to his arrest. Despite being incarcerated, and facing the military establishment’s ferocious targeting of his party, Khan managed to underscore his political clout at last year’s general elections as PTI-backed independent candidates won the majority of the seats.
However, just as the anti-army sentiment was soaring in synchrony with Khan’s continued popularity, the clashes with India in May saw the nation rally behind the military. The army chief, Asim Munir, was even promoted to field marshal. On July 25, a post was shared on social media on behalf of Khan, where he said that what the country is traversing “is not Martial Law but ‘Asim Law.’”
PTI insiders, however, reveal that there has been a push within the party to reconsider this anti-army orientation given recent developments.
“We as a party stood behind the army during the war with India. [Imran Khan] needs to accept the current ground realities, and look towards a long-term plan,” a PTI leader told The Diplomat, highlighting the growing narrative within the party urging Khan to reconcile with the military.
The PTI’s Taimur Jhagra, a former member of the provincial assembly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, told The Diplomat that there are disagreements within the party on the political approach to take going forward, but insisted that everyone is together when it comes to rallying for the release of the party founder. “Everyone will unite for Imran Khan. He enjoys support beyond party divides; he enjoys the support of the nation,” said Jhagra.
While party members appear to be showcasing a united front ahead of the August 5 demonstration, recent protests have underlined the PTI’s organizational struggles. The last major demonstration, in November, was called off prematurely amid government crackdown and reports of rifts within the PTI. Ali Amin Gandapur, the chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa spearheading the PTI government in the province, has been accused of batting for the military establishment.
Khan too has been critical in recent weeks of the “factionalism” within his party, insisting that not enough is being done to build the needed momentum ahead of August 5.
With many of his loyal party aides sidelined after the May 9 violence, Khan has relied on his family to rally for his release. Khan’s wife Bushra Bibi was at the forefront of many of the protests before being arrested and sentenced over the Al-Qadir Trust corruption case. The PTI founder’s sister Aleema Khan has been actively fighting for her brother’s cause, while his sons are now campaigning globally for their father’s release – including holding a meeting with Richard Grenell, a key aide to U.S. President Donald Trump.
Diplomatic sources have told The Diplomat that Khan’s future has been a part of the conversations between Washington and Islamabad, including during Trump’s meeting with Munir last month, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s meeting with Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar on July 25. In the aftermath of the meeting in Washington, Dar even drew a parallel between the incarcerations of Khan and Aafia Siddiqui, the al-Qaida affiliate convicted in the United States.
These developments have been interpreted by many PTI members and followers as the Trump government looking to reinstate Khan at the helm of the civilian affairs in Pakistan, in order to profit from his global reputation, given the plans that Washington is reported to have for the region.
It would be an immensely ironic development if U.S. intervention were to result in Khan’s freedom. Khan has frequently accused the United States of damaging Pakistan for its own interests, even claiming that the “conspiracy” resulting in his ouster as prime minister in 2022 originated in Washington.
“Imran Khan may have been a part of the discussion, but I don’t think Trump is explicitly pushing for his release,” Shamshad Ahmed, a former foreign secretary of Pakistan, told The Diplomat. “I don’t think Imran Khan will align with the Western interests, nor would he welcome Trump’s intervention,” he added.
The narrative constructed by the military establishment, and put forth by the local media, is that following the “triumph” against India in May, Pakistan has once again become a key player in the region, and is likely to play a critical role in various conflicts, including in Iran.
“I believe Pakistan’s position in the region is being grossly exaggerated,” said former Punjab chief minister and political scientist Hasan Askari Rizvi, the author of “The Military and Politics in Pakistan.” “Even if it were so, the military has no reason to reconsider the current setup, where the government is completely aligned with it. The army has solidified its position [following the clashes with India],” he added.
While the army leadership no longer feels any pressure from the PTI leadership, or the party’s following among the masses, military officials had told me earlier this year that Khan had been offered a way back into contention if he abandons his antagonism vis-à-vis the military establishment. The same officials now say that a proverbial get-out-of-the-jail-free card remains on the table over the long run, should Khan not only retract his erstwhile position against the army but also align with the establishment’s narrative on key issues – including Islamabad’s rekindling of lucrative ties with Washington.
However, the PTI founder would need to bide his time either way. “The protest calls are Imran Khan’s strategy to remain in the news, and maintain his relevance, because he knows that there is unlikely to be any respite for him in the short term,” maintained Rizvi.
Regardless of Khan’s fate, the military’s stranglehold has further increased. Many feel that the civilian government has been relegated to being absolute bystanders. Miftah Ismail, former finance minister and co-founder of Awaam Pakistan party, believes that the military’s level of control over political matters today is the highest that it has been since the dictatorship of Pervez Musharraf. However, Ismail insisted that Imran Khan is as responsible as the current political leaders for the surrender of democracy.
“It started with the PTI [in 2018]. Then the PDM [Pakistan Democratic Movement] government. And now, after the PML-N lost the elections, they have no moral authority,” said Ismail, who left the PML-N in 2023 to form his own party, which has been critical of the military’s continued interference in politics.
He insisted that the long-term solution lies in all parties coming together to work toward the common goal of Pakistan’s progress. “I think it’s important for all Pakistani stakeholders to come to some working understanding to move Pakistan forward,” said Ismail.
Therefore, for critics of the military establishment, who envision a flourishing democracy in Pakistan, the actual get-out-of-the-jail-free card for Khan lies in his reconciliation with his political rivals, who in turn should be open to a joint democratic front against the army’s hegemony. But recent developments suggest that the country might be as far away from such a consensus among its political leadership as it has ever been in recent times.