Last week, Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles hosted their counterparts from the United Kingdom for the AUKMIN discussions. These now annual talks have become more critical to Australia as the AUKUS initiative has developed, and particularly due to the chaotic and unreliable nature of the agreement’s third party, the United States.
The central outcome of the visit was the signing of the bilateral Nuclear-Powered Submarine Partnership and Collaboration Treaty by Marles and the U.K.’s Secretary of State for Defense John Healey. It’s informally known as the Geelong Treaty, given that it was signed in the Victorian city of Geelong, where Marles represents an electoral district. Keen to show off his electorate – and the two countries’ camaraderie – Marles also took Healey for a beer at a local brewery.
The Geelong Treaty commits Australia and the U.K. to the next 50 years of defense cooperation under AUKUS Pillar I. This involves the design, build, operation, and maintenance of new fleets of nuclear-powered submarines for both the United Kingdom’s Royal Navy and the Royal Australian Navy. The subs are scheduled to enter into service in the 2030s for the U.K. and the 2040s for Australia.
The treaty will support the development of the personnel, infrastructure, and regulatory systems that Australia needs to be capable of running a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines – all of which it currently lacks. The two countries also agreed to port visits and a rotational presence of the U.K.’s current Astute-class submarines in Australia.
In highlighting the importance of the agreement, Marles stated, “In military terms, what it will deliver is the biggest leap in Australia’s military capability, really, since the formation of the navy back in 1913.”
The signing of the treaty came as the largest British navy presence in 30 years arrived in Darwin – including its flagship aircraft carrier, the HMS Prince of Wales. The vessels are in Australia for the 11th iteration of the Talisman Sabre exercise, currently being conducted across northern Australia and Papua New Guinea with 30,000 personnel from 19 countries participating.
Australia’s defense strategy is often depicted as simply a reliance on Washington, and a hope that the U.S. will maintain a commitment to the Indo-Pacific region. Yet, there is a broader strategy of seeking to encourage other states with resources and shared worldviews into the region. Most of Australia’s “like-minded countries” exist within Europe, and the region is suffering from its own serious security threats at present, complicating Australia’s strategy.
However, the U.K. has signaled with its large contingent to Talisman Sabre – over 3,000 personnel – that London sees maintaining stability in the region as critical for their own interests as well. As the world’s economic center of gravity has shifted to the Indo-Pacific, it is clear that while Russia’s belligerence is a European threat, any attempt by China to alter the status quo across the Taiwan Strait would be globally catastrophic.
But it is not just the Taiwan Strait that both countries are concerned about. The joint statement from the AUSMIN discussions highlighted that:
“Ministers reiterated their strong opposition to coercive or destabilizing activities by China’s Coast Guard, naval vessels and maritime militia in the South China Sea, including sideswiping, water cannoning and close maneuvers that have resulted in injuries, endangered lives and created risks of miscalculation and escalation. Ministers agreed to continue cooperating to support freedom of navigation and overflight in the region, including through participation in joint activities.”
Approximately 12 percent of the U.K.’s annual trade passes through the South China Sea, making its stability a vital national interest. It is the economic interests of European countries within the region that provide greater assurance to Australia. While they may not have the raw power of the United States, deterrence is a psychological game as much as one of power, and the greater the number of states demonstrating their commitment to regional stability, the more Beijing will need to think twice about its actions.
The other game at play is how countries like Australia and the U.K. can keep the U.S. on the same page, particularly in light of the current U.S. Defense Department review of AUKUS. The friendly and cooperative spirit of the AUSMIN discussions was also a signal to Washington about what proper allyship looks like.
The signal may have been too subtle for those currently in the White House, or they may simply not care, yet managing and influencing Washington in new ways is now an essential part of how countries like Australia and the U.K. conduct their security and diplomatic relations.