Shortly after Donald Trump appointed his national security adviser, Mike Waltz, as ambassador to the United Nations, he tapped Secretary of State Marco Rubio to serve as Waltz’s interim replacement. This move makes Rubio the second person in U.S. history – after Henry Kissinger – to hold both posts simultaneously.
On the China issue, while Rubio’s image as a staunch Trump loyalist might suggest he is merely an executor of the president’s will, his growing stature within Trump’s inner circle signals that his dual roles could position him to play a more significant part in managing the ongoing China-U.S. trade stalemate.
Skeptics argue, however, that Rubio’s expanding presence does not necessarily translate into greater policymaking influence. As secretary of state, he remains bound to carry out Trump’s foreign policy directives, and some critics mockingly refer to him as “secretary of sycophants.” From this perspective, Trump’s assertive stance in the ongoing trade confrontation with China means Rubio will likely serve as a conduit, not a counterweight. Accordingly, it is plausible to assume Rubio may contribute little to resolving the trade impasse.
Proponents of this view may also draw a parallel between Rubio and Henry Kissinger. Although often credited with orchestrating the China-U.S. rapprochement in the 1970s, Kissinger initially lacked both expertise and interest in China. His engagement only deepened once he realized how central the issue was to President Nixon. In this light, Kissinger was more a passenger than a driver on Nixon’s China policy. Similarly, Rubio’s influence on Trump’s China approach is unlikely to exceed that of the incumbent president himself, no matter how high Rubio’s clout may rise within the administration.
For those who believe Rubio’s dual roles could influence Trump’s China policy, opinions diverge. One view holds that Rubio’s rapid ascent to a central position within Trump’s orbit will intensify the administration’s hostility toward China. Rubio had a longstanding record as a staunch China hawk during his Senate tenure. On economic relations, he not only studied China’s economy in granular detail – including from an industrial policy perspective – but also consistently pushed to embed human rights and geopolitical considerations into China-U.S. economic engagement, even when the first Trump administration was preparing to sign the “Phase One” trade deal in 2020.
Given that Rubio has been sanctioned twice by China and remains banned from entering the country, it would be unsurprising that he might use his growing influence to advocate for even more hardline policies.
However, it is possible that Rubio could serve as a moderating force in China-U.S. economic relations. Supporters of this view highlight Rubio’s shift in tone since becoming secretary of state. Once an unwavering supporter of military assistance to Ukraine, he now urges Kyiv to pursue a negotiated settlement with Moscow. Similarly, while he once framed Beijing as the most pernicious global threat and called for near-total decoupling, Rubio now appears more pragmatic – acknowledging China’s global influence and hinting at the need to operate within a multipolar world.
Rubio’s assumption of the national security adviser positions him as a direct counterpart to Wang Yi, who oversees the most critical diplomatic and security portfolios in China. Like Rubio, Wang currently holds two positions: the foreign minister post and the more important title of director of the Communist Party’s Central Foreign Affairs Committee. This alignment could streamline internal channels and facilitate more focused bilateral engagement – especially now that the two countries are publicly exploring avenues for de-escalation following talks in Geneva.
It is important to note that Rubio’s ascent also coincides with the de facto demotion of Waltz and the ousting of his deputy, Alex Wong – two of the administration’s most hawkish voices on China, particularly with respect to Taiwan. Their departure suggests a potential recalibration within Trump’s foreign policy team. With Waltz and Wong out, the door opens to advisers more aligned with Trump’s reluctance to risk military confrontation with China over Taiwan. More broadly, Trump may be signaling a shift away from the neoconservative mindset that entangled the United States in the costly and ill-fated Iraq War, and toward a deal-oriented approach more consistent with his personal brand – most recently exemplified by the new U.S.-UK trade agreement.
Rubio’s elevation could thus reflect Trump’s desire to speak with a unified voice – by ensuring that strategic concerns over the Taiwan Strait do not derail broader economic interests at a time when tariff-induced shocks are already pushing the U.S. economy toward deepening uncertainty and possible recession.
Meanwhile, let’s not overlook Rubio’s own ambition in this equation. As someone who has already run for president once, it would hardly be surprising if he made another bid in the near future. Trump’s MAGA drumbeat may be deafening for now, but there is no guarantee the GOP will adhere to his policies – particularly his neoconservative impulses – after his tenure ends. Frequently floated by Trump himself as a potential 2028 successor, alongside Vice President J.D. Vance, Rubio now faces the challenge of balancing loyalty to Trump, building his own political portfolio, and quietly positioning himself against Vance and other emerging rivals.
With an increasing number of Republicans joining Democrats in opposing Trump’s tariff agenda, a seasoned and shrewd politician like Rubio must have recognized that economic issues – especially China-U.S. trade – could fracture the GOP coalition, even with Trump’s formidable grip on the party. For Rubio, what would strengthen his resume is not a prolonged trade war with China, but a major deal he can claim credit for.
Having earned the rare distinction of unanimous Senate confirmation as a Trump cabinet head, Rubio’s reputation as a team player during his Senate years may help him garner internal support for his influence on Trump’s policymaking as he gradually solidifies his role in the administration. This is not to suggest a wholesale departure from his hawkish stance on China – but his ambition to be seen as a capable dealmaker and America’s top diplomat could very well catalyze a thaw in the current China-U.S. stalemate. That’s especially true as Trump appears to be shifting in that direction with the announcement of a “historic trade win” in talks with China – accompanied by a drastic lowering of U.S. and Chinese tariffs on each other.